3736 Bum Heel Ranch Rd · Taylor, AZ 85937

$220,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1981 5.00 ac lot $67/sqft · 38% below area Est $355k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a very large home that is in need of TLC. ,SOLD AS IS, the owner had 12 Volt solar with 110 outlets also installed however, Power pole is just at the front gate. It is in an estate and the perfect opportunity to get maximum bang for your bucks. The roof has very little pitch which has lead to a few leaky spots, but anyone with some handyman skills can cope with that. It is in a very desirable area of Snowflake and I believe it will be able to get a conventional loan or would need to be cash. The county records list the value at $448,477.00. The seller purchased a new 12 volt system but did not get it installed, It will transfer with the property. Seller will not consider offers for less than list price, this is an estate and working thru the court system.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Block-built workshop
• Concrete slab

Tags

• SECLUDED PARCEL
• FULLY FENCED
• GATED ENTRY
• BLOCK-BUILT WORKSHOP
• CONCRETE SLAB
• OPEN LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.9% in Taylor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#71 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Snowflake Unified District (4391) (town): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #36 of 249 in AZ (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,847
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -38.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $134,743
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $384,923
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85937

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,731/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 282 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 281 DOM
17. 2025-09-04
    status Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This is a very large home that is in need of TLC. ,SOLD AS IS, the owner had 12 Volt solar with 110 outlets also installed however, Power pole is just at the front gate. It is in an estate and the perfect opportunity to get maximum bang for your bucks. The roof has very little pitch which has lead to a few leaky spots, but anyone with some handyman skills can cope with that. It is in a very desirable area of Snowflake and I believe it will be able to get a conventional loan or would need to be cash. The county records list the value at $448,477.00. The seller purchased a new 12 volt system but did not get it installed, It will transfer with the property. Seller will not consider offers for less than list price, this is an estate and working thru the court system.

18. 2025-08-18
    status Pending 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This is a very large home that is in need of TLC. ,SOLD AS IS, the owner had 12 Volt solar with 110 outlets also installed however, Power pole is just at the front gate. It is in an estate and the perfect opportunity to get maximum bang for your bucks. The roof has very little pitch which has lead to a few leaky spots, but anyone with some handyman skills can cope with that. It is in a very desirable area of Snowflake and I believe it will be able to get a conventional loan or would need to be cash. The county records list the value at $448,477.00. The seller purchased a new 12 volt system but did not get it installed, It will transfer with the property. Seller will not consider offers for less than list price, this is an estate and working thru the court system.

19. 2025-08-05
    listed $220,000 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    This is a very large home that is in need of TLC. ,SOLD AS IS, the owner had 12 Volt solar with 110 outlets also installed however, Power pole is just at the front gate. It is in an estate and the perfect opportunity to get maximum bang for your bucks. The roof has very little pitch which has lead to a few leaky spots, but anyone with some handyman skills can cope with that. It is in a very desirable area of Snowflake and I believe it will be able to get a conventional loan or would need to be cash. The county records list the value at $448,477.00. The seller purchased a new 12 volt system but did not get it installed, It will transfer with the property. Seller will not consider offers for less than list price, this is an estate and working thru the court system.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,731 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,731
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$198
• After-tax cash flow: $3,019/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowflake Unified District (4391)
• NCES district ID: 0407820
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,767
• Composite: 45.91/100
• National rank: #2545
• State rank: #36 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Taylor

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #11662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,729
• Population (ZIP): 9,975

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.31%
• Current HPI: 480.9577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Relisted — WMMLS
• 2025-08-18 Pending — WMMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $220,000 WMMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,731 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.