21707 Hidalgo St · Elsa, TX 78538

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1983 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a wonderful opportunity to create the home you’ve always dreamed of! This property offers plenty of space to grow, beautiful mature trees for shade and outdoor enjoyment, and endless potential to make it your own. Located in a quiet, peaceful area, it’s the perfect setting for family gatherings, kids to play, and future memories. Whether you’re updating, expanding, or simply adding your personal touch, this home is ready for its next chapter and yours!

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Elsa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#648 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Edcouch-Elsa ISD (suburban): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #822 of 826 in TX (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,588 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.20%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $60,323
• Equity at exit: $100,758

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $170,170
• Equity at exit: $198,307

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78538

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $139	+0% $101	+5% $63	+10% $24
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $52	+0% $101	+5% $150	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $135	base $101	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Option
3. 2026-01-19
   listed $135,000 Active
4. 2025-07-14
   price $135,000
5. 2025-07-13
   listed $125,000 Active
6. 2011-10-07
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,135/yr (+$95/mo · 85.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,042
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$250
• After-tax cash flow: $1,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edcouch-Elsa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818060
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $25,724
• Composite: 10.99/100
• National rank: #9744
• State rank: #822 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elsa

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #648
• US rank: #12248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,608
• Population (ZIP): 10,740

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 98% Two or more races 58% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 96%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 9% English-only · Spanish 90% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.80%
• Current HPI: 244.519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $135,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-13 Listed $125,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2011-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,335 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.