446 Vermont Ave · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2005 7,840 sqft lot Est $301k · 29% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Big price improvement and priced to sell. This one owner home has a lot to offer at a great price. The 3 bed 2 bath home also has an enclosed addition with heat and air and a permitted workshop with electric, great for a craftsman or hobbyist. Right off the kitchen is an outdoor patio with a pergola with grape vines. You also have a deck right out the room addition. Many possibilities to make it your own spaces. Recently upgraded bathroom shower spaces. Low maintenance floors in most every room. Even has a murphy bed in the 2nd bedroom. Come see if you can make it yours.

Key facts

• Permitted workshop
• Deck
• Enclosed addition

Tags

• ENCLOSED ADDITION
• PERMITTED WORKSHOP
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• PERGOLA WITH GRAPE VINES
• DECK
• UPGRADED BATHROOM SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a designated senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Faces west
• Construction: Fiber cement and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced yard; Workshop (outbuilding)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Green Cove Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,198 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,966
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1116 Bonaventure Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-2%)	6mo	$295,000	$206	70
4132 Audubon Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-0%)	0mo	$312,350	$214	68
101 S Oakridge Ave	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,468 (+0%)	0mo	$200,000	$136	68
4140 Audubon Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-0%)	1mo	$309,880	$212	67
219 N West St	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,456 (-0%)	3mo	$250,000	$172	62
4112 Audubon Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+13%)	1mo	$327,850	$199	49
407 Green St S	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-12%)	4mo	$270,000	$210	48
4128 Audubon Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,609 (+10%)	0mo	$314,850	$196	47
4148 Audubon Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+13%)	1mo	$321,850	$196	45
4116 Audubon Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,245 (-15%)	1mo	$294,940	$237	45
4144 Audubon Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,245 (-15%)	2mo	$294,440	$236	42
1110 North St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+15%)	3mo	$312,500	$186	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-32,797
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-38,769
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 885
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,287/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,834

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1507 Julia St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,020	$1.25	2d	1	0.23mi
4019 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4019 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	23d	1	0.35mi
4016 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4016 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	23d	1	0.36mi
4028 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4028 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	23d	1	0.36mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	4d	1	0.54mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	3d	1	0.54mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	4d	1	0.54mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	0.54mi
410 Center St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	23d	1	1.00mi
4028 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	3d	1	1.07mi
4019 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	3d	1	1.07mi
212 Saint Johns Ave Unit 212 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	23d	1	1.17mi
104 Saint Elmo Rd Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,850	$1.65	23d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $214,900 Pending 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 73 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $214,900 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   price $219,000
8. 2026-05-07
   price $229,000
9. 2026-04-24
   price $239,000
10. 2026-04-02
    price $249,000
11. 2026-03-20
    listed $259,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$496/yr (+$41/mo · 38.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$1,287
• − Insurance: −$2,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,893
• − Management: −$1,893
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$2,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$546
• After-tax cash flow: $1,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $219,000 realMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $229,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $239,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $249,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $259,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,287 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.