12339 Stirrup Dr · Dade City, FL 33525

$309,650

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $142/sqft · 11% below area Est $348k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in the rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for overnight guests or residents needing additional privacy, as well as a flex space that can transform to meet the household's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-619/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 894 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,643/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,342 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,813
• List price: $309,650
• Delta: -10.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12152 Stirrup Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+2%)	18mo	$375,000	$170	74
38442 Palomino Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+2%)	20mo	$380,000	$172	71
38396 Palomino Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+2%)	20mo	$387,900	$176	70
38416 Palomino Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,207 (+2%)	22mo	$472,900	$214	68
12020 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,095 (-4%)	18mo	$383,843	$183	64
12022 Noble Chase Path	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+4%)	1mo	$329,990	$146	64
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,095 (-4%)	17mo	$365,638	$175	64
12013 Fallow Down Dr	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,077 (-4%)	0mo	$327,990	$158	60
38403 Honeysuckle Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+4%)	21mo	$365,990	$162	47
38399 Barrel Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-11%)	15mo	$402,900	$208	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-53,371
• Equity at exit: $46,170

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-50,328
• Equity at exit: $26,773

Cash invested: $86,702 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 99 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $319,090 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 894
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,643 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$387 /mo · $4,645/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,709

Max offer price $302,181

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $55	+0% $-52	+5% $-159	+10% $-266
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-156	+0% $-52	+5% $53	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $27	base $-52	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,412
• Closing costs: $9,290
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12195 Stirrup Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$2,700	$1.00	73d	1	0.14mi
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,700	$1.29	48d	1	0.33mi
11877 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,100	$1.12	18d	1	0.64mi
11851 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	21d	1	0.66mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,092	$1.05	8d	8	0.74mi
37015 Waldo Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1480	$3,750	$2.53	73d	1	1.38mi
37011 Bear Branch Dr Dade City, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1628	$2,275	$1.40	8d	10	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $340,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage parking spaces (2 total parking)
• Home design: Single-family home, Dawn planSpec inventory
• Construction: Built as new construction (Dawn plan)
• Exterior features: Property located at 12339 Stirrup Dr, Dade City, FL 33525

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 2,174Spec home (new construction, Dawn plan)

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-07-20
   days on market $309,650 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-07-18
   days on market $309,650 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-07-16
   days on market $309,650 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-07-15
   days on market $309,650 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $309,650 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-07-13
   days on market $309,650 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-07-11
   days on market $309,650 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-07-10
   days on market $309,650 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-07-10
   price $309,650 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $339,400 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-07-07
    days on market $328,400 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-07-06
    days on market $328,400 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-07-06
    days on market $328,400 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-07-05
    days on market $328,400 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-07-03
    days on market $328,400 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-07-03
    pricedays on market $328,400 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-07-01
    days on market $328,150 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-06-30
    days on market $328,150 Active 58 DOM
19. 2026-06-29
    price $328,150 Active 57 DOM
20. 2026-06-29
    days on market $327,900 Active 57 DOM
21. 2026-06-28
    days on market $327,900 Active 56 DOM
22. 2026-06-27
    days on market $327,900 Active 55 DOM
23. 2026-06-26
    days on market $327,900 Active 54 DOM
24. 2026-06-24
    days on market $327,900 Active 52 DOM
25. 2026-06-18
    days on market $327,900 Active 46 DOM
26. 2026-06-17
    days on market $327,900 Active 45 DOM
27. 2026-06-16
    days on market $327,900 Active 44 DOM
28. 2026-06-15
    days on market $327,900 Active 43 DOM
29. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $327,900 Active 41 DOM
30. 2026-06-09
    days on market $327,650 Active 37 DOM
31. 2026-06-08
    days on market $327,650 Active 36 DOM
32. 2026-06-07
    days on market $327,650 Active 35 DOM
33. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $327,650 Active 32 DOM
34. 2026-06-03
    days on market $327,400 Active 31 DOM
35. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $327,400 Active 30 DOM
36. 2026-06-01
    days on market $341,240 Active 29 DOM
37. 2026-05-31
    days on market $341,240 Active 28 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,345
• − Property taxes: −$4,645
• − Insurance: −$1,548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,538
• − Management: −$2,538
• − Depreciation: −$9,008
• Taxable loss: −$5,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,416
• After-tax cash flow: $797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,870–$32,610 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, and minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial Elementary School D- FL #1,223/2,144 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $340,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage parking spaces (2 total parking)
• Home design: Single-family home, Dawn planSpec inventory
• Construction: Built as new construction (Dawn plan)
• Exterior features: Property located at 12339 Stirrup Dr, Dade City, FL 33525

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area totaling 2,174Spec home (new construction, Dawn plan)