1218 E Cleveland Ave #2 · Madera, CA 93638

$110,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily · 137 Days on market

Built 1976 $69/sqft · 63% above area ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

***Price reduction for fast sale***Nice Mobile home ready to move in, granite counter tops, nicely remodeled kitchen, it comes with refrigerator, Washer & Dryer included. This is a very peaceful and quiet community, It Has two bathrooms, it has an storage room out in the back, close to shopping stores and restaurants .

Key facts

• Storage room
• Remodeled kitchen
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 3.9% in Madera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,053 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Madera Unified (urban): math 22% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,095 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.06%
• DSCR: 3.05
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,500
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 62.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
800 Wessmith Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-1%)	2mo	$325,000	$206	67
1331 Alicante Way	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (+8%)	4mo	$380,000	$222	57
1331 Alicante Way	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (+8%)	4mo	$380,000	$222	57
901 Bloker St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-10%)	6mo	$380,000	$266	56
200 S A St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-5%)	2mo	$278,000	$184	55
748 Shasta St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+1%)	8mo	$470,000	$294	51
1413 Wrenwood Way	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-14%)	4mo	$350,000	$254	51
1505 Fountain Way	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,411 (-11%)	1mo	$372,500	$264	51
1875 Storey Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-5%)	6mo	$440,000	$291	50
821 Austin Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	6mo	$294,999	$211	46
821 Austin Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	6mo	$294,999	$211	46
1101 Nebraska Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-13%)	4mo	$347,950	$252	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $53,250
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $137,903
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93638

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $270/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $1,116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,178	-5% $1,147	+0% $1,116	+5% $1,085	+10% $1,054
Rent	-10% $933	-5% $1,024	+0% $1,116	+5% $1,207	+10% $1,299
Rate	-1.0pp $1,171	-0.5pp $1,144	base $1,116	+0.5pp $1,087	+1.0pp $1,058

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1101 Nebraska Ave Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,095	$1.52	14d	1	0.66mi
1243 Bristlecone Dr Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,395	$1.48	13d	1	0.89mi
27848 Ellis St Madera, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	5d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-03-27
    price $110,000 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    ***Price reduction for fast sale***Nice Mobile home ready to move in, granite counter tops, nicely remodeled kitchen, it comes with refrigerator, Washer & Dryer included. This is a very peaceful and quiet community, It Has two bathrooms, it has an storage room out in the back, close to shopping stores and restaurants .

19. 2026-02-01
    listed $120,000 Active 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    ***Price reduction for fast sale***Nice Mobile home ready to move in, granite counter tops, nicely remodeled kitchen, it comes with refrigerator, Washer & Dryer included. This is a very peaceful and quiet community, It Has two bathrooms, it has an storage room out in the back, close to shopping stores and restaurants .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $270 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$566/yr (+$47/mo · 209.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$270
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,221
• − Management: −$2,221
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $12,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,961
• After-tax cash flow: $10,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madera Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623340
• Math proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,446
• Composite: 27.2/100
• National rank: #12454
• State rank: #1095 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Madera

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #25190

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madera, CA
• County: Madera County · 133,170 people
• City population: 109,650
• Metro: Madera, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,571
• Household income: $62,374
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1707.0

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 22% White 11% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 29% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.33%
• Current HPI: 458.5577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Madera, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $110,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $120,000 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2017): $270 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.