849 Ashford Dr · Calera, AL 35040

$212,010

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 784 sqft lot Est $199k · 6% over $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your brand-new home, where style meets functionality. From the inviting covered entry to the professionally landscaped front yard, this home makes a lasting first impression. Inside, you’ll find an open, light-filled layout featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The spacious family room flows seamlessly into the dining area and a stunning kitchen with energy-efficient appliances, generous counter space, and a spacious pantry designed to make everyday living easier! Photos are renderings and stock photos of a completed “Davenport” floor plan. Colors and features may be different than what is featured in the photos.

Key facts

• Spacious pantry
• Stunning kitchen
• Spacious family room

Tags

• OPEN LIGHT FILLED LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• ENERGY EFFICIENT APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• SPACIOUS PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-108/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calera Elementary (752 students, 64% FRL); Calera Middle (math 9% / reading 45%, grade F, #147 of 257 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 61% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 373 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $186,730 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,364
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
821 Ashford Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,012 (0%)	1mo	$206,500	$204	99
813 Ashford Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+6%)	2mo	$211,620	$198	89
877 Ashford Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+6%)	2mo	$209,900	$197	89
817 Ashford Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	2mo	$213,620	$187	77
628 Klynes Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,068 (+6%)	4mo	$209,938	$197	73
884 Camden Loop	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	10mo	$225,000	$197	68
609 Klynes Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	2mo	$230,000	$201	64
608 Klynes Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	2mo	$230,000	$201	61
636 Klynes Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	4mo	$225,000	$197	59
319 Amber Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,143 (+13%)	11mo	$232,900	$204	58
228 Meriweather Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,076 (+6%)	12mo	$177,000	$164	52
401 Meriweather Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,159 (+14%)	6mo	$164,000	$142	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-33,620
• Equity at exit: $31,611

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-24,580
• Equity at exit: $18,331

Cash invested: $59,363 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$265 /mo · $3,180/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $210,710

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $64	+0% $-9	+5% $-82	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-83	+0% $-9	+5% $65	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $45	base $-9	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,002
• Closing costs: $6,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
817 Ashford Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,895	$1.66	25d	1	0.04mi
813 Ashford Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,895	$1.77	25d	1	0.04mi
821 Ashford Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,895	$1.87	25d	1	0.04mi
1114 Emerald Ridge Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,536	$1.32	5d	1	0.28mi
127 Renwick Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,501	$1.08	25d	1	0.72mi
512 Camden Cove Cir Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,775	$1.18	13d	1	0.91mi
108 Flagstone Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,485	$1.16	13d	1	1.06mi
208 Hampton Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,738	$1.34	17d	1	1.06mi
500 Margaret Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,723	$1.29	5d	1	1.15mi
2150 20th St #2 Calera, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$695	$0.79	5d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   price $212,010
3. 2026-03-28
   listed $227,160 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,876
• − Property taxes: −$3,180
• − Insurance: −$1,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$6,168
• Taxable loss: −$3,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$885
• After-tax cash flow: $778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the interior walls, landscaping improvements, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $212,010 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $227,160 Greater Alabama MLS