71 Miller Rd #23 · Chelsea Cove, NY 12533

$120,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Condo · 52 Days on market

Built 1965 $150/sqft · 25% above area Est $96k · 25% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SUMMER GETAWAY OR RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY?....YOU CHOOSE! A WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APPROXIMATELY APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA GREAT FOR SUMMER OR WEEKEND RETREAT OR CAN BE USED AS A RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY. ENJOY THE PRIVATE SETTING AND PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FULLY FURNISHED (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE 2 CLUBHOUSES, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BEACH, TENNIS, AND GOLF ALL NEARBY.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Ample parking
• Sylvan lake beach

Tags

• RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY
• LAUNDRY FACILITY
• AMPLE PARKING
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SYLVAN LAKE BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Elevator(s) in the association; HOA covers exterior maintenance and water

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Shared septic sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Propane available; Private trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Stock cooperative; Entry at level 1
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Yard shed(s); Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Elevator; Front porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 2.5% in Chelsea Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Beekman School (math 34% / reading 74%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 381 students, 21% FRL); Union Vale Middle School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #76 of 729 statewide, top 11%, 907 students, 21% FRL); Arlington High School (math 95% / reading 58%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 2,547 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $120k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.46%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,222
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 24.71%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $70,579
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $177,498
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12533

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $1,413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Miller Rd Hopewell Junction, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	750	$3,600	$4.80	44d	3	0.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $120,000 Active 430-char remark
16. 2024-02-03
    historical
17. 2020-08-10
    listed $74,999
18. 2018-12-11
    soldstatus $39,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    SUMMER GETAWAY OR RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY?....YOU CHOOSE! A WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APPROXIMATELY APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA GREAT FOR SUMMER OR WEEKEND RETREAT OR CAN BE USED AS A RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY. ENJOY THE PRIVATE SETTING AND PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FULLY FURNISHED (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE 2 CLUBHOUSES, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BEACH, TENNIS, AND GOLF ALL NEARBY.

19. 2018-12-02
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    SUMMER GETAWAY OR RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY?....YOU CHOOSE! A WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APPROXIMATELY APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA GREAT FOR SUMMER OR WEEKEND RETREAT OR CAN BE USED AS A RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY. ENJOY THE PRIVATE SETTING AND PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FULLY FURNISHED (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE 2 CLUBHOUSES, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BEACH, TENNIS, AND GOLF ALL NEARBY.

20. 2018-08-30
    listed $45,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    SUMMER GETAWAY OR RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY?....YOU CHOOSE! A WONDERFUL SEASONAL COTTAGE (APPROXIMATELY APRIL 15 -OCTOBER 15) IN SYLVAN LAKE AREA GREAT FOR SUMMER OR WEEKEND RETREAT OR CAN BE USED AS A RENTAL INCOME PROPERTY. ENJOY THE PRIVATE SETTING AND PERENNIAL GARDENS. CAN COME FULLY FURNISHED (AT BUYER REQUEST), ALL EXISITNG KITCHEN, BATH AND AC/HEAT APPLIANCES STAY. LAUNDRY FACILITY ON SITE, AMPLE PARKING. AMENITIES INCLUDE 2 CLUBHOUSES, PLAYGROUND AND COMMUNITY POOL. SYLVAN LAKE BEACH, TENNIS, AND GOLF ALL NEARBY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,725
• − Management: −$2,725
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $15,995
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,839
• After-tax cash flow: $13,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chelsea Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,325
• Household income: $141,585
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.32%
• Current HPI: 232.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-10 Listed $74,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-11 Sold (MLS) $39,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-30 Listed $45,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid