313 N Deer Creek Dr W · Leland, MS 38756

$169,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,640 sqft · Other public records · 370 Days on market

Built 1920 0.45 ac lot $64/sqft · 26% below area Est $229k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the banks of Deer Creek in Leland. This home features high ceilings, an office/study, spacious laundry room, large sunroom, fenced back yard and screened in back porch.

Key facts

• Office study
• Fenced back yard
• Large sunroom

Tags

• OFFICE STUDY
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE SUNROOM
• FENCED BACK YARD
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-74/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#73 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Leland School District (town): math 5% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #117 of 130 in MS (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edna M Scott Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #337 of 375 statewide, top 94%, 257 students, 100% FRL); Leland School Park (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #158 of 179 statewide, top 90%, 264 students, 100% FRL); Leland High School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #129 of 197 statewide, top 65%, 179 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 370 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,790 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 370 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,200
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -26.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-27,837
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-24,985
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38756

• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $993/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,316

Max offer price $167,913

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $90	-5% $42	+0% $-6	+5% $-54	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-58	+0% $-6	+5% $46	+10% $97
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $37	base $-6	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 370 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 369 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 367 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 366 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 365 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 364 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 362 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,000 Active 361 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 358 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 357 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 356 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 355 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 352 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 351 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 350 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 349 DOM
17. 2026-03-04
    price $169,000 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Charming 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the banks of Deer Creek in Leland. This home features high ceilings, an office/study, spacious laundry room, large sunroom, fenced back yard and screened in back porch.

18. 2025-06-16
    listed $179,000 Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Charming 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the banks of Deer Creek in Leland. This home features high ceilings, an office/study, spacious laundry room, large sunroom, fenced back yard and screened in back porch.

19. 2023-05-10
    soldstatus 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Regular homestead would be $1183.05. Garage Roof is 2 years old. New fence. Porch with ramp. Alarm system. Dining room light doesn't stay with property. Sheer curtains don't stay.

20. 2023-05-09
    soldstatus $153,000
21. 2023-04-03
    listed $160,000 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Regular homestead would be $1183.05. Garage Roof is 2 years old. New fence. Porch with ramp. Alarm system. Dining room light doesn't stay with property. Sheer curtains don't stay.

22. 2017-06-13
    soldstatus $73,000
23. 2015-12-01
    soldstatus $73,000
24. 2010-04-12
    soldstatus $73,000
25. 2005-03-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $993 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$342/yr (+$29/mo · 34.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$993
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,256
• − Management: −$1,256
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$3,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$729
• After-tax cash flow: $655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leland School District
• NCES district ID: 2802610
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $30,773
• Composite: 7.75/100
• National rank: #9936
• State rank: #117 of 130 in MS

Livability — Leland

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #10033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leland, MS
• Population (ZIP): 6,568

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,424 people
• By 2030: 38,061 · -8.1%
• By 2040: 31,752 · -23.3%
• By 2050: 26,394 · -36.3%
• By 2075: 17,180 · -58.5%
• By 2100: 12,936 · -68.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 67.0% · R 32.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 34.7pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.4 2012: D+42.7 2008: D+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.23%
• Current HPI: 51.6345
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+131.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $169,000 Greenville Area MLS
• 2025-06-16 Listed $179,000 Greenville Area MLS
• 2023-05-10 Sold (MLS) — Greenville Area MLS
• 2023-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $153,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-03 Listed $160,000 Greenville Area MLS
• 2017-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $993 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.