4452 Cotton Ct · Stockton, CA 95207

$1,590,000

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 9,962 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1968 0.41 ac lot $160/sqft · 17% above area Est $1359k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 12 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

QUITE COURT LOCATION. 17.860 LOT. CONSIST OF 2 BUILDING LARGER BUILDING 2 STORY ALL 2 BEDROOMS/1 BATH RENT $689 - $750, SMALLER BUILDING ALL 1 BEDROOM/1 BATH SOME DOWN GRADES. 2 OF THE UNITS COMPLETELY REMODELED.

Key facts

• Central location
• Modern amenities
• Diverse mix of units

Tags

• 12-UNIT APARTMENT BUILDING
• PRIME 95207 ZIP CODE
• HIGH-DEMAND RENTAL AREA
• CENTRAL LOCATION
• DIVERSE MIX OF UNITS
• MODERN AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8×2bd/1ba + 4×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.59M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($51k/yr) — positive. Per door: $355/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.59M).
• Recommended offer: $1.40M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 171 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,932/mo this rent would consume 327% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 3292% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $445k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 99% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,399,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.49%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,358,891
• List price: $1,590,000
• Delta: 17.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $7,957
• Equity at exit: $237,074

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $332,805
• Equity at exit: $137,474

Cash invested: $445,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95207

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 80.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,338
• Tax from tax record: −$1,695 /mo · $20,336/yr
• Insurance: −$662
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,976
• Net cashflow: $4,261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,538

Max offer price $1,590,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,161	-5% $4,711	+0% $4,261	+5% $3,811	+10% $3,361
Rent	-10% $2,765	-5% $3,513	+0% $4,261	+5% $5,009	+10% $5,757
Rate	-1.0pp $5,062	-0.5pp $4,665	base $4,261	+0.5pp $3,849	+1.0pp $3,430

12-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 8× units	2	1	$13,096
▸ 4× units	1	1	$5,832
Total (12 units)			$18,932

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $397,500
• Closing costs: $47,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2021-12-09
    soldstatus $1,550,000
16. 2019-01-18
    historical
17. 2016-06-15
    soldstatus $735,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    QUITE COURT LOCATION. 17.860 LOT. CONSIST OF 2 BUILDING LARGER BUILDING 2 STORY ALL 2 BEDROOMS/1 BATH RENT $689 - $750, SMALLER BUILDING ALL 1 BEDROOM/1 BATH SOME DOWN GRADES. 2 OF THE UNITS COMPLETELY REMODELED.

18. 2016-06-15
    soldstatus $735,000

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    QUITE COURT LOCATION. 17.860 LOT. CONSIST OF 2 BUILDING LARGER BUILDING 2 STORY ALL 2 BEDROOMS/1 BATH RENT $689 - $750, SMALLER BUILDING ALL 1 BEDROOM/1 BATH SOME DOWN GRADES. 2 OF THE UNITS COMPLETELY REMODELED.

19. 2015-10-24
    listed $799,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    QUITE COURT LOCATION. 17.860 LOT. CONSIST OF 2 BUILDING LARGER BUILDING 2 STORY ALL 2 BEDROOMS/1 BATH RENT $689 - $750, SMALLER BUILDING ALL 1 BEDROOM/1 BATH SOME DOWN GRADES. 2 OF THE UNITS COMPLETELY REMODELED.

20. 2014-09-30
    soldstatus $600,000
21. 2013-08-21
    historical
22. 2013-05-21
    listed $595,000
23. 2013-05-20
    listed $595,000
24. 2006-04-11
    soldstatus $900,000
25. 2006-04-11
    soldstatus $900,000
26. 2005-12-24
    historical
27. 2005-11-06
    listed $935,000
28. 2002-03-15
    soldstatus $512,500
29. 2000-06-09
    soldstatus $188,000
30. 1994-01-21
    soldstatus $72,000
31. 1994-01-20
    soldstatus $72,000
32. 1992-11-06
    soldstatus $60,000
33. 1989-09-27
    soldstatus $400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $20,336 · $1,695/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,336 · $1,695/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $227,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,065
• − Property taxes: −$20,336
• − Insurance: −$7,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,175
• − Management: −$18,175
• − Depreciation: −$46,255
• Taxable income: $27,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,535
• After-tax cash flow: $44,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,414
• Household income: $69,455
• Rent vs Own: 58.4% rent · 41.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3292.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 24% White 23% Black 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.91%
• Current HPI: 358.6024
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+287.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2021-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $1,550,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-18 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2016-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $735,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-15 Sold (MLS) $735,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-10-24 Listed $799,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records
• 2013-08-21 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-05-21 Listed $595,000 BAREIS
• 2013-05-20 Listed $595,000 SDMLS
• 2006-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $900,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-11 Sold (MLS) $900,000 MLSListings
• 2005-12-24 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2005-11-06 Listed $935,000 MLSListings
• 2002-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $512,500 Public Records
• 2000-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $188,000 Public Records
• 1994-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1994-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1989-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $20,336 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.