Harper Plan · High Point, FL 34613

$293,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily · 401 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open-concept layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as 7590 Gardner St, Brooksville FL 34613
• Financial info: List price $293,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Harper plan (new construction plan); Single-family home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,665

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (Harper plan)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

🏗️ New construction. The $293,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,040.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#677 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pine Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 45%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 991 students, 60% FRL); West Hernando Middle School (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 695 students, 58% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,325/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,478 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11617 Memorial Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,665 (0%)	0mo	$291,990	$175	96
11603 Memorial Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,665 (0%)	1mo	$291,990	$175	94
11641 Memorial Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,665 (0%)	3mo	$275,990	$166	94
11568 Memorial Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,665 (0%)	1mo	$292,990	$176	94
11644 Memorial Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+0%)	2mo	$310,000	$185	88
11682 Memorial Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+0%)	3mo	$281,990	$169	87
11517 Timber Grove Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+0%)	2mo	$270,000	$161	86
11674 Memorial Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+10%)	1mo	$302,990	$166	78
11634 Memorial Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+10%)	2mo	$326,990	$179	77
11609 Memorial Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-10%)	2mo	$281,990	$187	73
10494 Desert Sparrow Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-6%)	1mo	$370,000	$237	56
8104 Nightingale Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (+5%)	2mo	$336,450	$192	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-59,459
• Equity at exit: $43,693

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-67,098
• Equity at exit: $25,337

Cash invested: $82,051 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,537
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,396/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,563

Max offer price $265,755

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-87	+0% $-189	+5% $-290	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-280	+0% $-189	+5% $-97	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-114	base $-189	+0.5pp $-264	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,260
• Closing costs: $8,791
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7718 Rome Ln Brooksville, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$2,200	$1.31	26d	1	0.33mi
12103 Fairway Ave Brooksville, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	0d	1	0.67mi
11285 Frigate Bird Ave Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	2053	$2,225	$1.08	26d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $293,990 Active 401 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $293,990 Active 398 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $293,990 Active 397 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $293,990 Active 396 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $293,990 Active 395 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,990 Active 393 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,990 Active 392 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $293,990 Active 389 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $293,990 Active 388 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $293,990 Active 387 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $293,990 Active 384 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $293,990 Active 383 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $293,990 Active 382 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $293,990 Active 381 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $293,990 Active 380 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,415
• − Property taxes: −$4,396
• − Insurance: −$1,465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$8,525
• Taxable loss: −$7,367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,768
• After-tax cash flow: $-495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — High Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #677
• US rank: #14099

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: High Point, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B