411 Launch Dr · Ohatchee, AL 35953

$139,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 1985 5.10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a lake getaway, family compound or somewhere to build your dream home if so this property is for you. Offering established public water & a septic tank that is connected to an existing (cabin)manufactured trailer(sold as is & where is) on 5 level acres has so much to offer. Less than 1/4 mile to public boat launch with public parking you will be able to spend your summer days enjoying Henry Neely Lake.

Key facts

• 5.1 acre lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 93 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property has public road access; Approximately 5.1 acres; Garbage fee amount: $85 (quarterly)
• Financial info: Has down payment assistance
• HOA & community: No association fee; Garbage fee charged quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric water heater; Internet service availability: unknown
• Home design: Existing structure; Single-story layout (all main level rooms)
• Construction: Siding (other); Crawl space foundation; No pool; No patio; No deck
• Exterior features: Waterfront on Neely Henry (lake access); Water access with boat launch and marina; Boating allowed (motorized); Fishing permitted; Swimming allowed; Skiing allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Kitchen located on main level
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (all on main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; Shared bath
• Heating & cooling: Window heating unit; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Handyman special; Ceilings: Other (see remarks); Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.5% in Ohatchee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#395 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• St Clair County (rural): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #33 of 129 in AL (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ashville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 506 students, 72% FRL); Ashville High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #90 of 305 statewide, top 35%, 385 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 41% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 557 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.71%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,883
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $46,094
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35953

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $573	-5% $525	+0% $477	+5% $429	+10% $381
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $405	+0% $477	+5% $549	+10% $621
Rate	-1.0pp $547	-0.5pp $512	base $477	+0.5pp $441	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-03-17
    listed $139,000 Active
15. 2026-03-14
    historical $139,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $3,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$896
• After-tax cash flow: $4,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St Clair County
• NCES district ID: 0103062
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,324
• Composite: 31.79/100
• National rank: #5887
• State rank: #33 of 129 in AL

Livability — Ohatchee

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #395
• US rank: #22187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,991
• Population (ZIP): 7,020

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,158 people
• By 2030: 97,008 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 101,615 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 104,537 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 109,350 · +16.1%
• By 2100: 106,785 · +13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.1) · D 17.6% · R 81.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -63.2pp · 2024: -64.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.1 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+68.6 2012: R+66.1 2008: R+63.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.36%
• Current HPI: 180.043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $139,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-14 Coming Soon $139,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $140 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.