3805 S 282nd St · Lakeland North, WA 98001

$49,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,020 sqft · Land · 107 Days on market

Built 1919 0.54 ac lot $17/sqft · 94% below area ↓ 58% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Over ½+ acre parcel with strong long-term potential. The existing structure is a complete loss — DO NOT ENTER THE BUILDING. Home will need to be demolished. Septic system has failed, making this a land-value opportunity best suited for cash buyers. Ideal as a future investment hold while awaiting sewer availability. Cash sale only. No seller financing, contingencies, or extended feasibility periods. Please respect neighboring property. Do not park in the private drive or in front of the home — that driveway belongs to the neighbor. If visiting, park at the top of the hill and walk down, or park on the back side of the brown fence. Please do not approach the neighbors or s

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Built 1919
• Listed 107 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 59.0% vs local median 3.1% in Lakeland North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#74 in WA, #1,351 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Federal Way School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #207 of 291 in WA (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 184 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,454 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 59.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 188.38%
• DSCR: 9.38
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $782,270
• List price: $49,950
• Delta: -93.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.55×
• Total profit: $133,519
• Equity at exit: $7,448

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.71×
• Total profit: $303,684
• Equity at exit: $4,319

Cash invested: $13,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98001

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $2,196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $438

Max offer price $49,950

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,224	-5% $2,210	+0% $2,196	+5% $2,181	+10% $2,167
Rent	-10% $1,941	-5% $2,069	+0% $2,196	+5% $2,323	+10% $2,450
Rate	-1.0pp $2,221	-0.5pp $2,208	base $2,196	+0.5pp $2,183	+1.0pp $2,169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,488
• Closing costs: $1,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28015 39th Ave S Auburn, WA	3.0	2.5	2620	$3,650	$1.39	25d	1	0.08mi
28414 34th Ave S Auburn, WA	3.0	3.5	2630	$3,100	$1.18	45d	1	0.25mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $49,950 Pending 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,950 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,950 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,950 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,950 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,950 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,950 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $49,950 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,950 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,950 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,950 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,950 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,950 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $69,950
15. 2026-04-09
    price $84,950
16. 2026-02-25
    listed $99,950 Active
17. 2017-08-04
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold
18. 2017-06-30
    status Pending Feasibility
19. 2017-06-02
    price $89,950
20. 2017-06-02
    status Active
21. 2017-05-27
    status Pending Inspection
22. 2017-05-23
    status Active
23. 2017-05-07
    status Pending Feasibility
24. 2017-05-06
    status Active
25. 2017-04-21
    status Pending Feasibility
26. 2017-04-13
    listed $99,950 Active
27. 2015-06-01
    historical
28. 2015-05-29
    soldstatus $61,425 Sold
29. 2015-04-25
    status Pending
30. 2015-04-10
    price $52,900
31. 2015-01-09
    status Active
32. 2015-01-09
    price $57,900
33. 2014-12-09
    status Pending
34. 2014-11-10
    price $93,150
35. 2014-07-17
    price $164,500
36. 2014-07-17
    price $159,500
37. 2014-06-11
    listed $167,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $762 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $762 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥87°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,798
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,089
• − Management: −$3,089
• − Depreciation: −$1,453
• Taxable income: $27,170
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,521
• After-tax cash flow: $19,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Federal Way School District
• NCES district ID: 5302820
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,594
• Composite: 38.79/100
• National rank: #8361
• State rank: #207 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lakeland North

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #1351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland North, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 37,460
• Household income: $106,791
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 573.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Asian 17% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 8% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Korean 4%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -616.80%
• Current HPI: 303.2883
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.53%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-58.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $69,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $84,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Listed $99,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-04 Sold (MLS) $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-02 Price Changed $89,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-06 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-13 Listed $99,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-01 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-29 Sold (MLS) $61,425 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-25 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-10 Price Changed $52,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-09 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-09 Price Changed $57,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-10 Price Changed $93,150 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-17 Price Changed $159,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-17 Price Changed $164,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-11 Listed $167,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.