8864 Shoal Creek Ln · Boynton Beach, FL 33472

$298,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,003 sqft · Townhouse public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1993 8,368 sqft lot $625/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Championship golf
• 8,368 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• HURRICANE RATED GARAGE DOOR
• CHAMPIONSHIP GOLF
• STATE OF THE ART FITNESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee; HOA includes cable TV, grounds maintenance, security, common areas and common real estate tax; Association amenities include a pool; Pets allowed with restrictions and limits

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway with two additional open parking spaces; Two covered parking spaces
• Security: Gated community with guard; Security system; HOA provides community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Villa single-story (one level); Faces west; Resale condition
• Construction: Stucco and CBS construction; Spanish tile roof
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; Community pool (HOA amenity)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Electric cooling with ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral and vaulted ceilings, with high ceilings; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $775 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $298k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.3% in Boynton Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#351 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Lakes Elementary School (math 55% / reading 64%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 788 students, 37% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle School (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B+, #111 of 571 statewide, top 20%, 1,387 students, 35% FRL); Park Vista Community High School (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 3,191 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $591 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $167k; list at $298k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,590 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.13%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $43,730
• Equity at exit: $89,644

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $145,192
• Equity at exit: $110,154

Cash invested: $83,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33472

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,565
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,503/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$625
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$855
• Net cashflow: $775

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,089

Max offer price $298,500

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,625
• Closing costs: $8,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8884 Shoal Creek Ln Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1936	$4,900	$2.53	24d	1	0.06mi
8884 Shoal Creek Ln Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1936	$5,000	$2.58	10d	1	0.06mi
7577 Caprio Dr Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1884	$3,200	$1.70	14d	1	0.23mi
7577 Caprio Dr Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1884	$3,200	$1.70	3d	1	0.23mi
7725 Rockford Rd Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	2249	$10,000	$4.45	3d	1	0.29mi
7832 Rockford Rd Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1598	$3,800	$2.38	22d	1	0.34mi
7275 Summer Tree Dr Boynton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1722	$4,300	$2.50	24d	1	0.37mi
7192 Summer Tree Dr Boynton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1722	$3,000	$1.74	24d	1	0.44mi
7975 Rockford Rd Boynton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1720	$3,700	$2.15	24d	1	0.48mi
7936 Rockford Rd Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1871	$9,000	$4.81	22d	1	0.48mi
7821 Dorchester Rd Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2325	$11,000	$4.73	24d	1	0.51mi
7891 Sailing Shores Ter Unit 7891 Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2011	$3,000	$1.49	7d	1	0.68mi
7891 Sailing Shores Ter Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2011	$3,400	$1.69	16d	1	0.68mi
7816 Bridlington Dr Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2330	$12,000	$5.15	24d	1	0.68mi
9650 Harbour Lake Cir Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1937	$2,975	$1.54	24d	1	0.77mi
8451 Siciliano St Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1627	$3,200	$1.97	12d	1	0.96mi
6731 Southport Dr Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1727	$3,600	$2.08	24d	1	0.97mi
8481 Siciliano St Unit 8481 Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$3,650	$2.06	24d	1	0.98mi
8082 Aberdeen Dr #102 Boynton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1619	$8,500	$5.25	24d	1	1.01mi
7418 Wescott Ter Lake Worth, FL	3.0	2.5	2170	$3,250	$1.50	7d	1	1.03mi
7705 Thornlee Dr Lake Worth, FL	4.0	2.5	2382	$3,500	$1.47	2d	1	1.19mi
9336 Water Course Way Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1779	$3,600	$2.02	24d	1	1.20mi
9336 Water Course Way Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1779	$3,600	$2.02	22d	1	1.20mi
9121 Paragon Way Boynton Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2154	$4,950	$2.30	24d	1	1.27mi
6365 Lansdowne Cir Boynton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1769	$3,200	$1.81	3d	1	1.29mi
6143 Windlass Cir Boynton Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$4,200	$1.87	18d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $625 · $7,500/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,500 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,500 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,500 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,500 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,500 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,500 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,500 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,500 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $298,500 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $298,500 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,500 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,500 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,500 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    listed $298,500 Active
15. 1993-07-07
    soldstatus $167,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,503 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,478 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$974/yr (+$81/mo · 64.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,721
• − Property taxes: −$1,503
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,907
• − Management: −$3,907
• − HOA: −$7,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,684
• Taxable income: $5,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,230
• After-tax cash flow: $8,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Boynton Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #6098

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 148,060
• Population (ZIP): 18,689

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.20%
• Current HPI: 268.1142
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+78.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $298,500 Beaches MLS
• 1993-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,503 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.