1526 Mainsail Dr · Marco Shores-Hammock Bay, FL 34114

$275,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 966 sqft · Condo · 264 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MUST SEE THIS UNIT TO APPRECIATE IT. ALL WOODWORK, DOORS AND TRIM HAVE BEEN CHANGED AND BOTH VANITY TOPS, WALLS ETC HAVE BEEN REDONE. CALIFORNIA CLOSETS. BEAUTIFUL LAKE AND GOLF COURSE VIEWS. WALL MODIFICATIONS OPEN THIS

Key facts

• Water
• Screened lanai
• Tennis courts

Tags

• SCREENED LANAI
• GOLF COURSE
• WATER
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,311 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.91%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-41,026
• Equity at exit: $60,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-35,416
• Equity at exit: $57,884

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 900
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,642 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,946

Max offer price $240,311

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-145	+0% $-240	+5% $-335	+10% $-430
Rent	-10% $-448	-5% $-344	+0% $-240	+5% $-135	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-170	base $-240	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1522 Mainsail Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,895	$2.11	14d	1	0.06mi
1516 Mainsail Dr #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$1,900	$1.97	14d	1	0.13mi
1510 Mainsail Dr #7 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$4,500	$4.66	14d	1	0.18mi
1315 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	828	$2,075	$2.51	14d	2	0.47mi
1315 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	828	$2,075	$2.51	24d	2	0.47mi
1305 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	871	$1,912	$2.19	21d	2	0.51mi
1305 Mainsail Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	925	$1,862	$2.01	24d	2	0.51mi
1165 Mainsail Dr #603 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	843	$3,000	$3.56	24d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 264 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 263 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 262 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 261 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,000 Active 248 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 247 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 245 DOM
13. 2025-09-27
    listed $275,000 Active
14. 1999-03-10
    listed $87,500 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    MUST SEE THIS UNIT TO APPRECIATE IT. ALL WOODWORK, DOORS AND TRIM HAVE BEEN CHANGED AND BOTH VANITY TOPS, WALLS ETC HAVE BEEN REDONE. CALIFORNIA CLOSETS. BEAUTIFUL LAKE AND GOLF COURSE VIEWS. WALL MODIFICATIONS OPEN THIS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$6,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,536
• − Management: −$2,536
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marco Shores-Hammock Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marco Shores-Hammock Bay, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+214.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-27 Listed $275,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 1999-03-10 Listed $87,500 MIML