156 Merchants Path · Bridgehampton, NY 11962

$3,195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 720 Days on market

Built 1985 1.37 ac lot $1884/sqft · 141% above area Est $2148k · 49% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Light-filled Sagaponack estate on 1.56 private acres, recently upgraded with a finished lower level and boasting a heated pool. Easy luxury living awaits on 2,750 +/- sq. ft. of space with 4 bedrooms and 4 baths, plus a full floor renovation, new HVAC, and new pool heater/equipment. Interiors beam with light across gorgeous hardwood floors, while multiple sliding glass doors bring the outside in. Open living areas include a 3-exposure living room with tall ceilings and fireplace, a dining area with glass doors to the deck and pool area, both fenced and a kitchen with island seating and stainless appliances. All bedrooms are well-sized and accommodating, including the ensuite primary suite with a glass shower and marble vanity. As a bonus, there is a large additional den, and a separate office area. The lower level is ready for year-round enjoyment with added living space to suit your needs. Enjoy the heated pool, barbecue, entertain, or dine al fresco on the deck. Additional amenities include a putting green, outdoor shower, and gated yard. Located minutes from ocean beaches, Sag Harbor, Bridgehampton, and Wainscott., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Putting green
• Heated pool

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• 3-EXPOSURE LIVING ROOM
• MARBLE VANITY
• PUTTING GREEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $3.19M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.01M (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.24M (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.24M (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#874 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $224k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $202k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$358k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 720 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.81M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.35M; list at $3.19M implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,242,868 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 720 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,148,140
• List price: $3,195,000
• Delta: 48.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $913,263
• Equity at exit: $2,072,840

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $2,721,292
• Equity at exit: $3,815,811

Cash invested: $894,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11962

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,429 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,755
• Tax from tax record: −$700 /mo · $8,400/yr
• Insurance: −$1,331
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,710
• Net cashflow: $-1,068

Break-even live

Break-even rent $23,780

Max offer price $3,006,416

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $798,750
• Closing costs: $95,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Narrow Ln Bridgehampton, NY	3.0	2.5	1296	$20,000	$15.43	1d	1	1.36mi
62 Sea Farm Ln Bridgehampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2200	$25,000	$11.36	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 720 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 719 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 718 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 717 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 715 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 711 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 710 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 709 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $3,195,000 Active 706 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,195,000 Active 705 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,195,000 Active 704 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,195,000 Active 703 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,195,000 Active 702 DOM
14. 2025-03-07
    price $3,195,000 1183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1183 chars)

    Light-filled Sagaponack estate on 1.56 private acres, recently upgraded with a finished lower level and boasting a heated pool. Easy luxury living awaits on 2,750 +/- sq. ft. of space with 4 bedrooms and 4 baths, plus a full floor renovation, new HVAC, and new pool heater/equipment. Interiors beam with light across gorgeous hardwood floors, while multiple sliding glass doors bring the outside in. Open living areas include a 3-exposure living room with tall ceilings and fireplace, a dining area with glass doors to the deck and pool area, both fenced and a kitchen with island seating and stainless appliances. All bedrooms are well-sized and accommodating, including the ensuite primary suite with a glass shower and marble vanity. As a bonus, there is a large additional den, and a separate office area. The lower level is ready for year-round enjoyment with added living space to suit your needs. Enjoy the heated pool, barbecue, entertain, or dine al fresco on the deck. Additional amenities include a putting green, outdoor shower, and gated yard. Located minutes from ocean beaches, Sag Harbor, Bridgehampton, and Wainscott., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

15. 2024-06-28
    listed $3,495,000 Active 1183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1183 chars)

    Light-filled Sagaponack estate on 1.56 private acres, recently upgraded with a finished lower level and boasting a heated pool. Easy luxury living awaits on 2,750 +/- sq. ft. of space with 4 bedrooms and 4 baths, plus a full floor renovation, new HVAC, and new pool heater/equipment. Interiors beam with light across gorgeous hardwood floors, while multiple sliding glass doors bring the outside in. Open living areas include a 3-exposure living room with tall ceilings and fireplace, a dining area with glass doors to the deck and pool area, both fenced and a kitchen with island seating and stainless appliances. All bedrooms are well-sized and accommodating, including the ensuite primary suite with a glass shower and marble vanity. As a bonus, there is a large additional den, and a separate office area. The lower level is ready for year-round enjoyment with added living space to suit your needs. Enjoy the heated pool, barbecue, entertain, or dine al fresco on the deck. Additional amenities include a putting green, outdoor shower, and gated yard. Located minutes from ocean beaches, Sag Harbor, Bridgehampton, and Wainscott., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

16. 2021-04-07
    soldstatus $1,350,000
17. 2005-05-09
    soldstatus $822,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,400 · $700/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $31,198 · $2,600/mo
• Expected delta: +$22,798/yr (+$1,900/mo · 271.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $269,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$178,970
• − Property taxes: −$8,400
• − Insurance: −$15,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,532
• − Management: −$21,532
• − Depreciation: −$92,945
• Taxable loss: −$70,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,850
• After-tax cash flow: $4,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bridgehampton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #874
• US rank: #16891

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bridgehampton, NY
• City population: 725
• Population (ZIP): 546

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Dominican 10% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Scotch-Irish 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Guatemala, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.32%
• Current HPI: 268.8442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+288.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $3,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-28 Listed $3,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,350,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $822,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $8,400 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.