18757 Golden Eagle Way · Elgin, TX 78621

$229,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Townhouse public records · 150 Days on market

Built 2005 3,450 sqft lot $149/sqft · at area comps Est $219k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Townhouse in Elgin. 3 bd 2.5 bath , two car garage detached. Fenced backyard in a quiet neighborhood. Close to elementary, middle and high school. Close to ACC campus. Nice and clean. All appliances included.

Key facts

• Close to high school
• Quiet neighborhood
• Close to acc campus

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CLOSE TO ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
• CLOSE TO MIDDLE SCHOOL
• CLOSE TO HIGH SCHOOL
• CLOSE TO ACC CAMPUS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,143 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.11%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,439
• List price: $229,500
• Delta: 4.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18733 Golden Eagle Way	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,420 (-8%)	17mo	$174,999	$123	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $107,977
• Equity at exit: $206,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $332,534
• Equity at exit: $445,868

Cash invested: $64,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,974 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,204
• Tax from tax record: −$534 /mo · $6,408/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,320

Max offer price $181,143

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,375
• Closing costs: $6,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	1d	1	0.10mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	2d	1	0.12mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	0.16mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.20mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	23d	1	0.24mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.25mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.29mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	4d	1	0.33mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.35mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.36mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	23d	1	0.36mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	43d	1	0.36mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	0.36mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	0.37mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	0.38mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	1d	1	0.38mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	23d	1	0.40mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	0.41mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	23d	1	0.42mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.42mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.45mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.59mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.74mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	0.90mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	0.92mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	0.98mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	1.12mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,500 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,500 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,500 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,500 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-01-04
   listed $229,500 Active 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Townhouse in Elgin. 3 bd 2.5 bath , two car garage detached. Fenced backyard in a quiet neighborhood. Close to elementary, middle and high school. Close to ACC campus. Nice and clean. All appliances included.

6. 2025-09-02
   status Active
7. 2025-03-25
   historical $1,650
8. 2024-12-29
   listed $1,650
9. 2024-11-18
   listed Active
10. 2021-02-08
    soldstatus
11. 2021-02-05
    soldstatus Closed
12. 2021-01-23
    status Pending
13. 2021-01-18
    listed $190,000 Active
14. 2020-12-14
    listed Active
15. 2020-04-27
    historical Temporarily Off Market
16. 2020-04-14
    listed Active
17. 2019-08-05
    soldstatus
18. 2019-07-31
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2019-06-21
    status Pending
20. 2019-06-11
    status Pending - Taking Backups
21. 2019-06-05
    status Active
22. 2019-05-29
    status Pending - Taking Backups
23. 2019-05-23
    listed $159,900 Active
24. 2015-10-01
    soldstatus
25. 2015-09-30
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2015-08-25
    status Pending - Taking Backups
27. 2015-08-19
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,408 · $534/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,408 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,856
• − Property taxes: −$6,408
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,895
• − Management: −$1,895
• − Depreciation: −$6,676
• Taxable loss: −$7,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,726
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+99.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-04 Listed $229,500 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-25 Rental Removed $1,650 REDFIN
• 2024-12-29 Listed for Rent $1,650 REDFIN
• 2024-11-18 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2021-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-05 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2021-01-23 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2021-01-18 Listed $190,000 Unlock MLS
• 2020-12-14 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2020-04-27 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2020-04-14 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2019-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-31 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2019-06-21 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2019-06-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2019-06-05 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2019-05-29 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2019-05-23 Listed $159,900 Unlock MLS
• 2015-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-30 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2015-08-25 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2015-08-19 Listed $115,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,408 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.