405 Yorkshire Ln · Bismarck, ND 58504

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $55k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Green space
• Bath vanities
• Wrap around deck

Tags

• WRAP AROUND DECK
• GREEN SPACE
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• BATH VANITIES
• TILE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community playground; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; Shingle roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built as a mobile home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Window treatments; 10 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 42.9% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 130.66%
• DSCR: 6.81
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,880
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
346 Piccadilly Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	14mo	$55,500	$35	74
301 Oxford Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	8mo	$44,900	$31	71
511 Nottingham Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	20mo	$34,900	$24	67
303 Sussex St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	17mo	$54,900	$38	66
617 Dover Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+7%)	17mo	$34,900	$21	65
443 Piccadilly Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+9%)	9mo	$60,000	$35	64
454 Piccadilly Cir	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-14%)	2mo	$30,000	$22	60
508 Stratford Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	12mo	$55,000	$41	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.33×
• Total profit: $70,671
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.31×
• Total profit: $159,908
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58504

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $303/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $1,216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $318

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,239	-5% $1,228	+0% $1,216	+5% $1,205	+10% $1,194
Rent	-10% $1,070	-5% $1,143	+0% $1,216	+5% $1,290	+10% $1,363
Rate	-1.0pp $1,237	-0.5pp $1,227	base $1,216	+0.5pp $1,206	+1.0pp $1,196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Irvine Loop Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,400	$2.46	22d	1	0.23mi
127 Stuttgart Dr Unit 1 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	22d	1	0.35mi
100 Santa Fe Ave Unit 5214 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1206	$1,860	$1.54	22d	1	0.35mi
100 Santa Fe Ave Unit 3111 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1206	$1,670	$1.38	22d	1	0.37mi
100 Santa Fe Ave Unit 5322 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,890	$1.51	22d	1	0.37mi
2900 Kamrose Dr Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$2,580	$2.48	22d	33	0.50mi
1543 S Washington St Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,050	$1.37	22d	1	0.65mi
121 Sleeper Way Lincoln, ND	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,395	$1.48	22d	1	0.81mi
109 W Burleigh Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,395	$1.33	22d	1	0.88mi
2130 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1152	$1,980	$1.72	22d	12	1.12mi
2020 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1185	$1,955	$1.65	22d	19	1.16mi
172 Boise Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	22d	1	1.18mi
215 E Arbor Ave Unit 201-302E Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	22d	1	1.34mi
201 E Arbor Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	22d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $39,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $303 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $391 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$303
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $14,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,559
• After-tax cash flow: $11,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 30,212
• Household income: $85,637
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Native American 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.70%
• Current HPI: 210.0651
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $39,900 GNMLS