5514 Keith Ct #18 · Keyes, CA 95382

$79,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition Est $60k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5520 Kieth Ct, SPACE 18, Turlock, CA 95380! This delightful 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom mobile home offers 720 sqft of comfortable living space. Recently updated, it boasts modern features and a fresh, contemporary feel throughout. The spacious living area is perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Both bedrooms provide cozy retreats, and the one bathrooms feature stylish fixtures and finishes. Nestled in a friendly community, this home is conveniently located near local amenities, parks, and schools. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this beautifully updated mobile home yours! Schedule a viewing today and experience the charm of SPACE 18 for yourself.

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Monthly land lease listed (note: land lease present information provided)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water from district
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single wide; Built in 1971
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting; Champion manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front yard; Fenced yard; Landscaped areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Ceramic countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Great room living area; Dining and living room combined; Ceramic kitchen countertops
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; 220V outlet in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,599 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.26%
• DSCR: 3.64
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,760
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5538 Keith Ct	0.01mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	14mo	$40,000	$56	88
5526 Keith Ct	0.01mi	2/1.0	696 (-3%)	10mo	$57,500	$83	86
5548 Keith Ct #7	0.01mi	1/1.0 (-1)	620 (-14%)	11mo	$43,000	$69	62
5061 Nunes Rd #39	0.59mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	11mo	$74,500	$93	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $51,150
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $121,360
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95382

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $1,040

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 W Christoffersen Pkwy Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,217	$2.28	13d	15	1.22mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,999 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,999 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,999 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,999 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,999 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,999 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,999 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,999 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,999 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,999 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,999 Active 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$1,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $11,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,871
• After-tax cash flow: $9,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home offers a good condition with modern updates and a fresh, contemporary feel. It's ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,083
• Household income: $95,282
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 6% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -312.66%
• Current HPI: 279.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B