2851 S LA CADENA Dr #22 · Colton, CA 92324

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 103 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1972 Good condition $115/sqft · 8% below area Est $180k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.8

Listing remarks MLS

Pride of ownership. This marvelous open floor plan mobile home is located in the Cadena Creek mobile home park. It has many improvements such as, new exterior doors, new sliding glass doors, new AC unit, new windows, new updated kitchen, with new appliances, updated bathrooms, new shutters in living room, new closet doors, partial new driveway, new support posts in carport. it has a convenient inside laundry room. This mobile home has everything you need. You will enjoy relaxing in the front porch/patio. Come and enjoy the many amenities this mobile home park has to offer such as pool and poolside picnic area, spa, clubhouse, community playground, children's playground. This mobile home park also offers RV/boat parking. Mobile home park is close to 215, 91, and 60 freeways, as well as close to schools and shopping.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New ac unit
• New exterior doors

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW EXTERIOR DOORS
• NEW SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.4% in Colton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#817 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Colton Joint Unified (suburban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 517 in CA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodrow Wilson Elementary (499 students, 90% FRL); Terrace Hills Middle (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #260 of 498 statewide, top 54%, 838 students, 74% FRL); Grand Terrace High Sch At The Ray Abril Jr. Edal Complex (math 20% / reading 58%, grade F, #558 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,726 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 94d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.14%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,650
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -8.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3306 Debbie	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-2%)	3mo	$590,000	$420	73
7060 Olive Grove St	1.11mi	3/2.5	1,410 (-2%)	3mo	$488,340	$346	57
12780 Fremontia	1.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (-4%)	2mo	$549,000	$398	51
115 Shirley Ct	0.85mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (+8%)	1mo	$610,000	$394	46
7102 Olive Grove St	1.12mi	3/2.5	1,567 (+9%)	3mo	$485,000	$310	46
1922 S Cordova Ave	1.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,556 (+8%)	2mo	$585,000	$376	45
19253 Monticello Grove Way	1.08mi	3/2.5	1,257 (-13%)	3mo	$496,990	$395	40
475 Transit Ave	0.87mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-21%)	3mo	$505,000	$443	37
3469 Columbia	1.39mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-20%)	2mo	$390,000	$339	36
31 Heron	1.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,712 (+19%)	0mo	$735,000	$429	35
19197 Sequoia Grove St	1.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (-17%)	1mo	$445,000	$373	34
12251 Michigan	1.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,196 (-17%)	0mo	$549,000	$459	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,910
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $46,471
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 90.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $202,995 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 150 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -21.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92324

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $659	-5% $602	+0% $545	+5% $488	+10% $431
Rent	-10% $376	-5% $460	+0% $545	+5% $629	+10% $713
Rate	-1.0pp $628	-0.5pp $587	base $545	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2665 S Rosedale Ave Colton, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	122d	1	0.42mi
422 Devener St Unit C Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,550	$1.72	94d	1	0.52mi
434 Highland Ave Riverside, CA	3.0	1.0	884	$2,549	$2.88	10d	1	0.74mi
722 Forest Park Dr Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1069	$3,200	$2.99	99d	1	0.78mi
716 N Orange St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$4,500	$4.17	0d	1	0.78mi
894 N Orange St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,750	$1.96	94d	1	1.01mi
19173 Sequoia Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1204	$3,250	$2.70	132d	1	1.07mi
19253 Monticello Grove Way Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1257	$3,200	$2.55	0d	1	1.09mi
7030 Olive Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1549	$3,295	$2.13	126d	1	1.10mi
7440 Fig Grove Ln Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1257	$1,100	$0.88	2d	1	1.12mi
7102 Olive Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1567	$3,000	$1.91	63d	1	1.12mi
7512 Fig Grove Ln Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1410	$3,500	$2.48	90d	1	1.13mi
7281 Olive Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1257	$3,075	$2.45	184d	1	1.13mi
7419 Olive Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1257	$2,950	$2.35	50d	1	1.16mi
22042 Tanager St Grand Terrace, CA	4.0	2.5	1875	$4,000	$2.13	184d	1	1.22mi
1066 Orange St Unit 1076-3 Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,195	$2.00	10d	1	1.24mi
1066 Orange St Unit 1142-4 Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,195	$2.00	113d	1	1.24mi
1066 Orange St Unit 1102-3 Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	967	$1,795	$1.86	113d	1	1.24mi
1151 Clark St Riverside, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,800	$2.24	91d	1	1.31mi
1151 Clark St Riverside, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,800	$2.24	10d	1	1.31mi
3573 Columbia Ave Unit 17 Riverside, CA	2.0	2.0	948	$2,195	$2.32	94d	1	1.35mi
3451 Columbia Ave Riverside, CA	3.0	1.5	1150	$2,295	$2.00	5d	1	1.37mi
22149 Tanager St Grand Terrace, CA	3.0	2.0	1462	$3,300	$2.26	53d	1	1.37mi
22122 Van Buren St Grand Terrace, CA	4.0	2.0	1330	$3,100	$2.33	105d	1	1.38mi
22122 Van Buren St Grand Terrace, CA	4.0	2.0	1330	$3,100	$2.33	1d	1	1.38mi
12461 Vivienda Ave Grand Terrace, CA	3.0	2.0	1352	$3,000	$2.22	128d	1	1.48mi
12251 Michigan St Grand Terrace, CA	2.0	1.5	1196	$2,195	$1.84	1d	1	1.49mi
12251 Michigan St Grand Terrace, CA	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,600	$2.17	117d	1	1.49mi
12553 Pascal Ave Grand Terrace, CA	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,995	$1.90	184d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-07-24
   days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-07-23
   days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-07-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-07-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-07-20
   days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-07-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-07-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-07-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-07-14
    days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-07-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-07-11
    days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-07-10
    days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-07-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-07-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-07-06
    days on market $165,000 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    days on market $165,000 Active 84 DOM
19. 2026-07-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
20. 2026-07-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
21. 2026-07-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
22. 2026-07-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 80 DOM
23. 2026-06-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 79 DOM
24. 2026-06-29
    days on market $165,000 Active 78 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $165,000 Active 77 DOM
26. 2026-06-27
    days on market $165,000 Active 76 DOM
27. 2026-06-26
    days on market $165,000 Active 75 DOM
28. 2026-06-24
    days on market $165,000 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-06-22
    days on market $165,000 Active 71 DOM
30. 2026-06-21
    days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
31. 2026-06-18
    days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
32. 2026-06-17
    days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
33. 2026-06-16
    days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
34. 2026-06-15
    days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
35. 2026-06-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
36. 2026-06-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
37. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
38. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
39. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
40. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
41. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
42. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
43. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
44. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
45. 2026-05-11
    status Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Pride of ownership. This marvelous open floor plan mobile home is located in the Cadena Creek mobile home park. It has many improvements such as, new exterior doors, new sliding glass doors, new AC unit, new windows, new updated kitchen, with new appliances, updated bathrooms, new shutters in living room, new closet doors, partial new driveway, new support posts in carport. it has a convenient inside laundry room. This mobile home has everything you need. You will enjoy relaxing in the front porch/patio. Come and enjoy the many amenities this mobile home park has to offer such as pool and poolside picnic area, spa, clubhouse, community playground, children's playground. This mobile home park also offers RV/boat parking. Mobile home park is close to 215, 91, and 60 freeways, as well as close to schools and shopping.

46. 2026-04-24
    status Pending Sale 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Pride of ownership. This marvelous open floor plan mobile home is located in the Cadena Creek mobile home park. It has many improvements such as, new exterior doors, new sliding glass doors, new AC unit, new windows, new updated kitchen, with new appliances, updated bathrooms, new shutters in living room, new closet doors, partial new driveway, new support posts in carport. it has a convenient inside laundry room. This mobile home has everything you need. You will enjoy relaxing in the front porch/patio. Come and enjoy the many amenities this mobile home park has to offer such as pool and poolside picnic area, spa, clubhouse, community playground, children's playground. This mobile home park also offers RV/boat parking. Mobile home park is close to 215, 91, and 60 freeways, as well as close to schools and shopping.

47. 2026-03-25
    listed $165,000 Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Pride of ownership. This marvelous open floor plan mobile home is located in the Cadena Creek mobile home park. It has many improvements such as, new exterior doors, new sliding glass doors, new AC unit, new windows, new updated kitchen, with new appliances, updated bathrooms, new shutters in living room, new closet doors, partial new driveway, new support posts in carport. it has a convenient inside laundry room. This mobile home has everything you need. You will enjoy relaxing in the front porch/patio. Come and enjoy the many amenities this mobile home park has to offer such as pool and poolside picnic area, spa, clubhouse, community playground, children's playground. This mobile home park also offers RV/boat parking. Mobile home park is close to 215, 91, and 60 freeways, as well as close to schools and shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $4,155
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$997
• After-tax cash flow: $5,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This well-maintained mobile home in Cadena Creek mobile home park is in good condition with recent updates and improvements. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior doors — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both replace window seals — improves energy efficiency and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodrow Wilson Elementary Middle Terrace Hills Middle F CA #260/498 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High Grand Terrace High Sch At The Ray Abril Jr. Edal Complex F CA #558/1,170 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colton Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609390
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,178
• Composite: 23.74/100
• National rank: #7820
• State rank: #373 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Colton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #817
• US rank: #23005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colton, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,300,329 people
• City population: 57,365
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,365
• Household income: $71,078
• Rent vs Own: 45.3% rent · 54.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 24% White 11% Black 8% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.99%
• Current HPI: 451.2973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $165,000 CRMLS