2851 S LA CADENA Dr #22 · Colton, CA 92324

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 67 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition $115/sqft · 10% below area Est $183k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pride of ownership. This marvelous open floor plan mobile home is located in the Cadena Creek mobile home park. It has many improvements such as, new exterior doors, new sliding glass doors, new AC unit, new windows, new updated kitchen, with new appliances, updated bathrooms, new shutters in living room, new closet doors, partial new driveway, new support posts in carport. it has a convenient inside laundry room. This mobile home has everything you need. You will enjoy relaxing in the front porch/patio. Come and enjoy the many amenities this mobile home park has to offer such as pool and poolside picnic area, spa, clubhouse, community playground, children's playground. This mobile home park also offers RV/boat parking. Mobile home park is close to 215, 91, and 60 freeways, as well as close to schools and shopping.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New ac unit
• New exterior doors

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW EXTERIOR DOORS
• NEW SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 3.5% in Colton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#817 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Colton Joint Unified (suburban): math 16% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 517 in CA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,293/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 2195% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.96%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,155
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -9.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2851 S La Cadena Dr #31	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	24mo	$137,500	$95	69
2851 S La cadena Dr #56	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	22mo	$168,000	$117	66
2851 S La Cadena #123 Dr #123	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	20mo	$185,000	$138	65
2851 S La Cadena Dr #72	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	22mo	$185,000	$138	58
2851 S La Cadena Dr #55	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+7%)	23mo	$181,000	$118	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $64,734
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $169,717
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92324

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $1,461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,575	-5% $1,518	+0% $1,461	+5% $1,404	+10% $1,347
Rent	-10% $1,201	-5% $1,331	+0% $1,461	+5% $1,591	+10% $1,721
Rate	-1.0pp $1,544	-0.5pp $1,503	base $1,461	+0.5pp $1,419	+1.0pp $1,375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 N Orange St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$4,999	$4.63	0d	1	0.78mi
19173 Sequoia Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1204	$3,250	$2.70	0d	1	1.07mi
7440 Fig Grove Ln Unit 7440 Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1257	$1,100	$0.88	44d	1	1.12mi
7512 Fig Grove Ln Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1410	$3,500	$2.48	0d	1	1.13mi
7281 Olive Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1257	$3,075	$2.45	44d	1	1.13mi
22042 Tanager St Grand Terrace, CA	4.0	2.5	1875	$4,000	$2.13	44d	1	1.22mi
1151 Clark St Riverside, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,800	$2.24	44d	1	1.31mi
12553 Pascal Ave Grand Terrace, CA	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,995	$1.90	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    status Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Pride of ownership. This marvelous open floor plan mobile home is located in the Cadena Creek mobile home park. It has many improvements such as, new exterior doors, new sliding glass doors, new AC unit, new windows, new updated kitchen, with new appliances, updated bathrooms, new shutters in living room, new closet doors, partial new driveway, new support posts in carport. it has a convenient inside laundry room. This mobile home has everything you need. You will enjoy relaxing in the front porch/patio. Come and enjoy the many amenities this mobile home park has to offer such as pool and poolside picnic area, spa, clubhouse, community playground, children's playground. This mobile home park also offers RV/boat parking. Mobile home park is close to 215, 91, and 60 freeways, as well as close to schools and shopping.

16. 2026-04-24
    status Pending Sale 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Pride of ownership. This marvelous open floor plan mobile home is located in the Cadena Creek mobile home park. It has many improvements such as, new exterior doors, new sliding glass doors, new AC unit, new windows, new updated kitchen, with new appliances, updated bathrooms, new shutters in living room, new closet doors, partial new driveway, new support posts in carport. it has a convenient inside laundry room. This mobile home has everything you need. You will enjoy relaxing in the front porch/patio. Come and enjoy the many amenities this mobile home park has to offer such as pool and poolside picnic area, spa, clubhouse, community playground, children's playground. This mobile home park also offers RV/boat parking. Mobile home park is close to 215, 91, and 60 freeways, as well as close to schools and shopping.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $165,000 Active 826-char remark

    Show marketing remark (826 chars)

    Pride of ownership. This marvelous open floor plan mobile home is located in the Cadena Creek mobile home park. It has many improvements such as, new exterior doors, new sliding glass doors, new AC unit, new windows, new updated kitchen, with new appliances, updated bathrooms, new shutters in living room, new closet doors, partial new driveway, new support posts in carport. it has a convenient inside laundry room. This mobile home has everything you need. You will enjoy relaxing in the front porch/patio. Come and enjoy the many amenities this mobile home park has to offer such as pool and poolside picnic area, spa, clubhouse, community playground, children's playground. This mobile home park also offers RV/boat parking. Mobile home park is close to 215, 91, and 60 freeways, as well as close to schools and shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,161
• − Management: −$3,161
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $15,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,805
• After-tax cash flow: $13,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Cadena Creek mobile home park is in good condition with recent updates and improvements. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior doors — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both replace window seals — improves energy efficiency and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior doors — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both replace window seals — improves energy efficiency and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Colton Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0609390
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,178
• Composite: 23.74/100
• National rank: #7820
• State rank: #373 of 517 in CA

Livability — Colton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #817
• US rank: #23005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colton, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 57,365
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,365
• Household income: $71,078
• Rent vs Own: 45.3% rent · 54.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 24% White 11% Black 8% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.99%
• Current HPI: 451.2973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $165,000 CRMLS