1153 Rumrill Blvd #74 · San Pablo, CA 94806

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition $167/sqft · 26% above area Est $95k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to affordable living in the heart of San Pablo! This spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom double-wide mobile home offers a fantastic open layout perfect for families or those seeking extra room to grow. Located in a friendly, well-maintained family park, the home features a private carport for convenient parking and is situated just minutes from local shopping and major commuter routes. Combining comfort, community, and value, this move-in-ready home is an opportunity you won’t want to miss.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Private carport
• Local shopping

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• PRIVATE CARPORT
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• MAJOR COMMUTER ROUTES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Hacienda Mobile Home Park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide model (SAHARA)
• Construction: 720 square feet living area
• Exterior features: No yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with unspecified 'Other' features
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $818 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 2.9% in San Pablo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#715 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.23%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 26.32%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1153 Rumrill Blvd #55	0.01mi	3/1.0	720 (0%)	5mo	$102,500	$142	96
1153 Rumrill Blvd #78	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-7%)	4mo	$95,000	$141	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $32,833
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $96,349
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94806

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $818

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $901	-5% $860	+0% $818	+5% $777	+10% $735
Rent	-10% $654	-5% $736	+0% $818	+5% $901	+10% $983
Rate	-1.0pp $879	-0.5pp $849	base $818	+0.5pp $787	+1.0pp $756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1614 Rumrill Blvd Unit D San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	745	$1,795	$2.41	6d	1	0.37mi
2031 Market Ave #124 San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	691	$1,000	$1.45	19d	1	0.66mi
2031 Market Ave Unit private room San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.66mi
1680 24th St San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	636	$1,895	$2.98	2d	1	0.77mi
150 Marina Way Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	715	$1,795	$2.51	15d	1	1.22mi
146 19th St Unit I Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	690	$1,895	$2.75	25d	1	1.27mi
827 S 33rd St Unit 827 Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	731	$2,150	$2.94	13d	1	1.30mi
827 S 33rd St Unit 827 Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	731	$2,150	$2.94	44d	1	1.30mi
177 22nd St Richmond, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,250	$3.00	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-05
   listed $120,000 Active 504-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $8,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,018
• After-tax cash flow: $7,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and paint, which would significantly improve its curb appeal and overall value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant peeling and wear
• Major exterior paint — Peeling paint on the exterior

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — This would significantly enhance the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant peeling and wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling paint on the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both repair and paint exterior siding — This would significantly enhance the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Contra Costa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632550
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,837
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #11623
• State rank: #993 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Pablo

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #21354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Pablo, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,546
• Household income: $86,034
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2830.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Black 13% White 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.89%
• Current HPI: 323.0082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $120,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR