3511 Lantana Dr · Llano Grande, TX 78596

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 231 Days on market

Built 1996 5,999 sqft lot $83/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Block walls and Concrete foundation home with lots of potential, roof is 4 years old, needs some finishing touches, clean up and repairs but would make great starter home or rental investment. 2 bedroom 1.5 bathroom. Includes furniture.

Key facts

• 5,999 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,288 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 710 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $75 of equity ($484 loan paydown + $-409 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.20%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,484
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -57.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2812 Ruby Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	960 (+14%)	24mo	$176,000	$183	36
2001 E 23rd St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-14%)	12mo	$105,000	$146	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $19,173
• Equity at exit: $18,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $53,623
• Equity at exit: $20,449

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78596

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,177/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $626

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $402	-5% $382	+0% $363	+5% $343	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $320	+0% $363	+5% $406	+10% $448
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $380	base $363	+0.5pp $345	+1.0pp $326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2801 Laquinta Weslaco, TX	2.0	1.0	984	$1,350	$1.37	44d	1	0.67mi
1630 Playa Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	935	$1,095	$1.17	44d	1	1.24mi
1635 Playa Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	44d	1	1.24mi
1603 Playa Dr Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	1.34mi
1511 Playa Dr Unit 2 Progreso Lakes, TX	3.0	2.0	987	$1,250	$1.27	44d	1	1.37mi
609 Buena Vista Dr Apt 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	888	$750	$0.84	44d	1	1.42mi
604 Buena Vista Dr Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	783	$750	$0.96	44d	1	1.48mi
1424 Alta Vista Dr Apt 1 Progreso Lakes, TX	2.0	2.0	825	$995	$1.21	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 212 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 211 DOM
17. 2025-10-31
    listed $70,000 Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    Block walls and Concrete foundation home with lots of potential, roof is 4 years old, needs some finishing touches, clean up and repairs but would make great starter home or rental investment. 2 bedroom 1.5 bathroom. Includes furniture.

18. 2025-10-30
    price $70,000
19. 2024-10-28
    listed $75,000 Active
20. 1989-07-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$104/yr (+$9/mo · 8.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,018
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,177
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$828
• After-tax cash flow: $3,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Llano Grande

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1288
• US rank: #22408

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Llano Grande, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,942

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 38% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 72%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.58%
• Current HPI: 261.5117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Listed $70,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $70,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-10-28 Listed $75,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1989-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,177 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.