2015 St Paul Ave Unit 3G · New York, NY 10461

$158,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 750 sqft · Condo · 32 Days on market

Built 1964 ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This one-bedroom co-op located at 2015 Saint Paul Avenue in the Pelham Bay neighborhood of the Bronx offers a spacious and comfortable living space in a prime location. This unit features hardwood floors and ample natural light. The building is equipped with elevators for convenience. Residents have access to common laundry facilities within the building. A live-in super is available to address maintenance and building concerns. The co-op is pet-friendly, accommodating small pets. Indoor and outdoor parking, as well as storage units, are available on a waitlist basis. A bicycle storage room is available for immediate use. Co-op is being sold As Is Condition. The property is a short walk fro

Key facts

• Bicycle storage room
• Pet-friendly
• Natural light

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ELEVATORS
• COMMON LAUNDRY FACILITIES
• PET-FRIENDLY
• BICYCLE STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,260 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.93%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,217
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $65,494
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10461

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$198 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$747
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1250 Pelham Pkwy S Unit B Bronx, NY	1.0	1.0	725	$2,850	$3.93	24d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-28
   price $158,000
3. 2026-01-09
   listed $173,500 Active
4. 2025-10-03
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-03
   status Active
6. 2025-10-03
   historical
7. 2025-10-01
   historical
8. 2025-07-28
   price $175,000
9. 2025-05-31
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − HOA: −$8,964
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$174
• After-tax cash flow: $1,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 52,012
• Household income: $67,028
• Rent vs Own: 70.3% rent · 29.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4430.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 30% Asian 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 20% Cuban 1% Dominican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 34% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.06%
• Current HPI: 266.5457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.99%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $158,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $173,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $175,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-31 Listed $185,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid