420 Carol Dr NE · Palm Bay, FL 32907

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1988 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Beautiful house ready to move, Close to I-95 to the Palm Bay mall, and the best district school Lockmar. BRICK HOUSE- CITY WATER- SCREEN POCH. Spacius house with formal living room, dinner room, and family room. Split plan nice master bath with garden bathtub. Tile in the living areas and wood (laminate) in the beds. Big nice screen porch. TOTAL RENOVATED Large patio. BEST BUY IN THE AREA

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry on level 1; Property faces north
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Full wood fencing; Shed on property; Cleared lot; Canal-front waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bath with tub and shower; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; In-unit laundry located on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-449/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lockmar Elementary School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 583 students, 58% FRL); Central Middle School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 1,127 students, 53% FRL); Palm Bay Magnet Senior High School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,486 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 739 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $146k; list at $300k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,352 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,809
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-70,686
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32907

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 739
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,324 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,104/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,371

Max offer price $293,291

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $47	+0% $-37	+5% $-122	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-129	+0% $-37	+5% $54	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $39	base $-37	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1084 Herne Ave NE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2244	$3,000	$1.34	24d	1	0.35mi
171 Salmon Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$2,195	$1.95	24d	1	0.47mi
356 Pipit St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	24d	1	0.48mi
127 Memory Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1756	$4,000	$2.28	24d	1	0.49mi
986 Piedmont Ave NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,850	$1.49	14d	1	0.63mi
4152 Merrillville Dr West Melbourne, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$2,225	$2.01	24d	1	0.94mi
362 Emerson Dr NW Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,885	$1.59	24d	1	0.95mi
100 Larch Cir NE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$1,775	$1.75	14d	16	0.99mi
1425 Malibu Cir NE #111 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,650	$1.40	24d	1	1.09mi
118 Discovery DR West Melbourne, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,486	$2.50	14d	58	1.12mi
1495 Malibu Cir NE #102 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,600	$1.36	14d	1	1.14mi
918 Aventine Dr West Melbourne, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	907	$2,202	$2.43	14d	33	1.17mi
1099 Dania Cir NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,300	$1.75	24d	1	1.21mi
124 Evergreen St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,855	$1.45	24d	1	1.23mi
347 Americana Blvd NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,900	$1.38	14d	1	1.24mi
549 Burlington Ave NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,075	$1.29	14d	1	1.26mi
1231 Mariposa Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,150	$1.30	24d	1	1.37mi
997 Mariposa Dr NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1722	$1,800	$1.05	24d	1	1.37mi
1460 Sheafe Ave NE #105 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,725	$1.49	24d	1	1.37mi
1030 Abada Ct NE #110 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1163	$1,800	$1.55	24d	1	1.38mi
463 Eldron Blvd NE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,800	$1.50	24d	1	1.38mi
1411 Sheafe Ave NE #102 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	1156	$1,550	$1.34	24d	1	1.44mi
1431 Sheafe Ave NE #104 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1163	$1,500	$1.29	24d	1	1.44mi
4535 Amore Ln Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,144	$1.47	14d	4	1.47mi
1040 Venetian Dr #203 Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1781	$1,700	$0.95	24d	1	1.47mi
1471 Sheafe Ave NE #102 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,800	$1.53	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $299,900 Pending 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active Under Contract 58 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active Under Contract 57 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
6. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-04-17
   status Active
8. 2026-04-08
   historical
9. 2026-04-08
   status Active
10. 2026-04-02
    historical Active Under Contract
11. 2026-03-26
    listed $299,900 Active
12. 2026-03-20
    historical $299,900
13. 2014-11-25
    soldstatus $146,000
14. 2014-11-21
    soldstatus $146,000 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Beautiful house ready to move, Close to I-95 to the Palm Bay mall, and the best district school Lockmar. BRICK HOUSE- CITY WATER- SCREEN POCH. Spacius house with formal living room, dinner room, and family room. Split plan nice master bath with garden bathtub. Tile in the living areas and wood (laminate) in the beds. Big nice screen porch. TOTAL RENOVATED Large patio. BEST BUY IN THE AREA

15. 2014-08-07
    listed $149,990 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. Beautiful house ready to move, Close to I-95 to the Palm Bay mall, and the best district school Lockmar. BRICK HOUSE- CITY WATER- SCREEN POCH. Spacius house with formal living room, dinner room, and family room. Split plan nice master bath with garden bathtub. Tile in the living areas and wood (laminate) in the beds. Big nice screen porch. TOTAL RENOVATED Large patio. BEST BUY IN THE AREA

16. 2014-07-11
    soldstatus $101,900
17. 2014-07-02
    soldstatus $101,900 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Property is in a quiet neighborhood close to schools, shopping, and 95.

18. 2014-03-06
    listed $104,900 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Property is in a quiet neighborhood close to schools, shopping, and 95.

19. 2006-10-24
    soldstatus $156,100
20. 2006-10-20
    soldstatus $156,002
21. 2006-08-03
    listed $155,000
22. 1988-05-01
    soldstatus $11,000
23. 1988-05-01
    soldstatus $92,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$385/yr (+$32/mo · 18.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,104
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,231
• − Management: −$2,231
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,369
• After-tax cash flow: $920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,080
• Household income: $75,311
• Rent vs Own: 13.3% rent · 86.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 15% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.79%
• Current HPI: 308.9719
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2626.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $299,900 SCMLS
• 2026-03-20 Coming Soon $299,900 SCMLS
• 2014-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-21 Sold (MLS) $146,000 SCMLS
• 2014-08-07 Listed $149,990 SCMLS
• 2014-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $101,900 Public Records
• 2014-07-02 Sold (MLS) $101,900 SCMLS
• 2014-03-06 Listed $104,900 SCMLS
• 2006-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $156,100 Public Records
• 2006-10-20 Sold (MLS) $156,002 SCMLS
• 2006-08-03 Listed $155,000 SCMLS
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,104 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.