18 Outer Banks Pl · Sacramento, CA 95835

$499,950

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2006 3,233 sqft lot $251/sqft · 11% below area Est $560k · 11% under $77/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 18 Outer Banks Place! This stunning single-family home is nestled in Hamptons Village. This home offers a perfect blend of comfort and style. This move in ready, turn key home was recently updated and features 4 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 Baths including a large primary suite with a large private bathroom. You can appreciate large separate living room and family rooms with a cozy fireplace, large inside laundry room and a gourmet kitchen equipped with modern appliances, granite countertops and tile floors perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Home features new interior paint, tile flooring, new carpet, new 2" faux blinds and more! The backyard has a ample patio just perfect for thos

Key facts

• Clear pest
• Gourmet kitchen
• Ample patio

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE PATIO
• CLEAR PEST
• TRANSFERABLE WARRANTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient features including insulated walls, efficient appliances, doors, thermostat, and water heater
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $77; HOA fee covers management, common area maintenance, and grounds maintenance; HOA transfer fee paid by seller

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces (2 garage spaces total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence (residential); Built in 2006; Stucco exterior; Combination foundation
• Construction: Stucco construction; Combination foundation; Shingle roof not listed
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard; Fenced yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops; Kitchen island; Built-in oven and microwave; Gas range/cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker hookup; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Three total bathrooms — two full and one half; Primary bathroom with stall shower, tub, marble finish, and updated fixtures; Other bathrooms feature shower-over-tub with fiberglass
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Updated kitchen; No additional rooms; Double pane windows with coverings; Weather-stripped doors and windows; One fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on street/main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-996 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $323k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: H. Allen Hight Elementary (802 students, 59% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Inderkum High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 2,266 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $323,061 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $560,351
• List price: $499,950
• Delta: -10.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3428 Shaker Way	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,917 (-4%)	1mo	$590,905	$308	76
1472 Jeannie Way	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+2%)	1mo	$600,000	$295	69
3419 Mas Amilos Way	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,021 (+2%)	0mo	$542,000	$268	69
3345 La Cadena Way	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,904 (-4%)	2mo	$565,000	$297	68
5225 Sun Chaser Way	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,870 (-6%)	2mo	$535,000	$286	62
180 Caravaggio Cir	0.49mi	4/2.5	1,776 (-11%)	1mo	$485,000	$273	58
5649 Harveston Way	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,223 (+12%)	2mo	$655,000	$295	58
8150 Gardini Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,175 (+9%)	2mo	$787,515	$362	56
5362 Seal Beach Way	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,137 (+7%)	1mo	$598,000	$280	55
141 Caravaggio Cir	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (+10%)	0mo	$530,000	$241	54
5358 Admiral Bend Way	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,859 (-7%)	2mo	$520,000	$280	52
15 Bristle Bark Pl	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,238 (+12%)	0mo	$560,000	$250	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $176,292
• Equity at exit: $420,966

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $553,659
• Equity at exit: $878,236

Cash invested: $139,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$516 /mo · $6,186/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $-996

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,491

Max offer price $324,068

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-713	-5% $-854	+0% $-996	+5% $-1,137	+10% $-1,279
Rent	-10% $-1,251	-5% $-1,123	+0% $-996	+5% $-868	+10% $-740
Rate	-1.0pp $-744	-0.5pp $-868	base $-996	+0.5pp $-1,125	+1.0pp $-1,257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,988
• Closing costs: $14,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	12d	1	0.04mi
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	3d	1	0.11mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	25d	2	0.20mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	18d	3	0.20mi
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	4d	1	0.22mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	13d	1	0.23mi
5301 E Commerce Way #34103 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1774	$3,000	$1.69	0d	1	0.25mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	0d	1	0.31mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	45d	1	0.35mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	45d	1	0.46mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	4d	1	0.58mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	4d	1	0.58mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	0d	1	0.61mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	45d	1	0.61mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	0d	1	0.68mi
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	4d	1	0.96mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	45d	2	0.96mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	9d	1	0.99mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	45d	1	1.02mi
4236 Bellwether Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2282	$3,300	$1.45	0d	1	1.08mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	45d	1	1.10mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	45d	1	1.38mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	16d	1	1.41mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	3d	1	1.41mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	19d	3	1.41mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	23d	2	1.41mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	0d	24	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $499,950 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,950 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,950 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $499,950 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $499,950 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $499,950 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $499,950 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,950 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   listed $519,950 Active 931-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,186 · $516/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,186 · $516/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,005
• − Property taxes: −$6,186
• − Insurance: −$4,002
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,101
• − Management: −$3,101
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$14,544
• Taxable loss: −$21,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,063
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $499,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $519,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,186 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.