415 W South St · Montour Falls, NY 14865

$170,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,199 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 284 Days on market

Built 1900 9,148 sqft lot $53/sqft · 21% below area Est $215k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this charming historic home located less than a block from the falls just waiting for its next owner to restore it to its former glory! Offering over 3,100 sq. ft. of living space, this property is full of potential and character. Features include: Spacious corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. Detached 2-car garage for parking and storage. The home requires some interior updates/repair and is priced accordingly, offering an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to preserve and restore a historic property. Newer roof and vinyl siding, giving you a head start on updates. Endless possibilities, perfect as a residential home, or transform it into a bed & breakfast or Airbnb investment. Opportunities like this don’t come often! Don’t miss your chance to make this special property your own.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Spacious corner lot
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• HISTORIC HOME
• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• NEWER ROOF
• VINYL SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#786 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Odessa-Montour Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #383 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B C Cate Elementary School (239 students, 38% FRL); Odessa-Montour Junior/Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 293 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Odessa-Montour Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Schuyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Schuyler County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $170k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,348 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.09%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,522
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -20.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,371
• Equity at exit: $87,781

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $60,376
• Equity at exit: $144,854

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14865

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,363 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,749/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,719

Max offer price $120,348

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-233	+0% $-281	+5% $-329	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-389	-5% $-335	+0% $-281	+5% $-227	+10% $-173
Rate	-1.0pp $-195	-0.5pp $-238	base $-281	+0.5pp $-325	+1.0pp $-370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $170,000 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 270 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 267 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 262 DOM
18. 2025-11-28
    price $170,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Check out this charming historic home located less than a block from the falls just waiting for its next owner to restore it to its former glory! Offering over 3,100 sq. ft. of living space, this property is full of potential and character. Features include: Spacious corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. Detached 2-car garage for parking and storage. The home requires some interior updates/repair and is priced accordingly, offering an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to preserve and restore a historic property. Newer roof and vinyl siding, giving you a head start on updates. Endless possibilities, perfect as a residential home, or transform it into a bed & breakfast or Airbnb investment. Opportunities like this don’t come often! Don’t miss your chance to make this special property your own.

19. 2025-09-23
    price $190,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Check out this charming historic home located less than a block from the falls just waiting for its next owner to restore it to its former glory! Offering over 3,100 sq. ft. of living space, this property is full of potential and character. Features include: Spacious corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. Detached 2-car garage for parking and storage. The home requires some interior updates/repair and is priced accordingly, offering an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to preserve and restore a historic property. Newer roof and vinyl siding, giving you a head start on updates. Endless possibilities, perfect as a residential home, or transform it into a bed & breakfast or Airbnb investment. Opportunities like this don’t come often! Don’t miss your chance to make this special property your own.

20. 2025-09-10
    listed $220,000 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Check out this charming historic home located less than a block from the falls just waiting for its next owner to restore it to its former glory! Offering over 3,100 sq. ft. of living space, this property is full of potential and character. Features include: Spacious corner lot with plenty of room to enjoy. Detached 2-car garage for parking and storage. The home requires some interior updates/repair and is priced accordingly, offering an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to preserve and restore a historic property. Newer roof and vinyl siding, giving you a head start on updates. Endless possibilities, perfect as a residential home, or transform it into a bed & breakfast or Airbnb investment. Opportunities like this don’t come often! Don’t miss your chance to make this special property your own.

21. 2004-08-26
    soldstatus $80,000
22. 2004-08-25
    soldstatus $80,000 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    HISTORIC HOME IN MONTOUR FALLS GLORIOUS 'T'. NEW R OOF, GUTTER SYSTEM AND WINDOWS. LOTS OF SPACE, 5-6 BEDROOMS, 3 BATHS.

23. 2003-07-04
    listed $82,000 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    HISTORIC HOME IN MONTOUR FALLS GLORIOUS 'T'. NEW R OOF, GUTTER SYSTEM AND WINDOWS. LOTS OF SPACE, 5-6 BEDROOMS, 3 BATHS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,749 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,749 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$4,749
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$6,325
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,518
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa-Montour Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621630
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,720
• Composite: 42.81/100
• National rank: #3142
• State rank: #383 of 590 in NY

Livability — Montour Falls

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #15104

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montour Falls, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,578

Population outlook (Schuyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,999 people
• By 2030: 17,676 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 16,586 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 15,322 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 13,004 · -27.8%
• By 2100: 10,752 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schuyler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 39.5% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.1pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+17.6 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+7.9 2008: R+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Current HPI: 263.1314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+107.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $170,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $190,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $220,000 UNYREIS
• 2004-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-25 Sold (MLS) $80,000 UNYREIS
• 2003-07-04 Listed $82,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,749 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.