217 Silo Dr · Midlothian, TX 76065

$499,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,390 sqft · Land · 28 Days on market

Built 2025 9,148 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21278507 - Built by J Houston Homes - Ready Now! ~ NEW JOHN HOUSTON HOME IN REDDEN FARMS IN MIDLOTHIAN ISD. This beautifully appointed 4-bedroom, 2.5 bathroom offers comfort and convenience. As you step inside, you're greeted by a cozy wood-burning fireplace and four large windows, making the living room feel spacious and inviting. The kitchen features a 36 gas cooktop, cabinets to the ceiling for extra storage, a wood-wrapped island, and a trash rollout. The primary suite is a true retreat, with its generous bedroom layout, dual vanity with a luxury shower, and garden tub. READY NOW!

Key facts

• Dual vanity
• 36 gas cooktop
• Wood wrapped island

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• 36 GAS COOKTOP
• CABINETS TO THE CEILING
• WOOD WRAPPED ISLAND
• TRASH ROLLOUT
• DUAL VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Redden Farms Phase 1; Municipal Utility District: No
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Redden Farms HOA); HOA fee $750 annually (includes management fees); Community pool; Playground; Jogging/bike paths and sidewalks; Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car single door configuration
• Security: Security system; Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Energy-efficient HVAC, insulation, lighting, and thermostat
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; New construction completed in 2025; One story
• Construction: Brick and rock/stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Gutters; Private yard; Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Two living areas; One dining area; One-level floor plan; Fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $339k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 22% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1112 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $338,979 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-97,135
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-92,634
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1112
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,277/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$712
• Net cashflow: $-321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,796

Max offer price $443,145

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-180	+0% $-321	+5% $-463	+10% $-604
Rent	-10% $-589	-5% $-455	+0% $-321	+5% $-187	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-194	base $-321	+0.5pp $-451	+1.0pp $-583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.58mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2400	$8,950	$3.73	44d	1	0.73mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Unit 1389216P Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2389	$15,575	$6.52	25d	1	0.73mi
4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,100	$1.34	0d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: trashgas

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,900 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $499,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $499,900 Active
15. 2026-05-01
    status Active
16. 2026-05-01
    historical
17. 2026-05-01
    historical
18. 2026-02-02
    price $499,900
19. 2026-01-31
    price $509,900
20. 2026-01-08
    price $499,900
21. 2025-12-04
    price $509,900
22. 2025-11-13
    price $512,400
23. 2025-09-18
    price $514,900
24. 2025-08-21
    price $519,900
25. 2025-07-30
    listed $519,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,148 · $762/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,872/yr (+$656/mo · 616.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,277
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,254
• − Management: −$3,254
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$12,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $509,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $509,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $512,400 NTREIS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $514,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $519,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $519,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,277 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.