28 Mineral Springs Rd · Buffalo, NY 14210

$214,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1900 2,178 sqft lot $199/sqft · at area comps Est $222k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 1.5 bath 2 story home. Spacious, freshly painted interior. Nice enclosed front porch. Great value for South Buffalo!

Key facts

• Heated sunroom
• Newer roof
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• HEATED SUNROOM
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• INCLUDED APPLIANCES
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Two-story existing home
• Construction: Vinyl and wood siding; Asphalt roof; Block and stone foundation; Copper plumbing
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Enclosed porch; Covered porch; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular residential lot; Near public transit; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid surface countertops; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on second floor (11 x 11 and 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varies by room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Main-level bathroom present
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Combined living/dining area; Sliding glass door(s); Solid surface counters; Natural woodwork; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $215k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,634 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,989
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -3.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Unger Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (-1%)	3mo	$223,600	$209	72
351 Abbott Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$162	67
124 Zittel St	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,028 (-5%)	4mo	$206,000	$200	63
102 Pomona Pl	0.25mi	4/1.0	1,232 (+14%)	2mo	$81,000	$66	61
131 Geary St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	945 (-12%)	4mo	$110,000	$116	58
88 Marbeth Ct	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-7%)	3mo	$239,900	$238	58
30 Portland St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,006 (-7%)	5mo	$160,000	$159	54
152 Como Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,134 (+5%)	7mo	$211,000	$186	54
93 Salem St	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,184 (+10%)	1mo	$235,000	$198	54
30 Strathmore Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (0%)	6mo	$245,000	$227	53
112 Hubbell Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,161 (+8%)	4mo	$205,000	$177	51
16 Mesmer Ave	0.71mi	4/1.0	1,021 (-6%)	6mo	$206,000	$202	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $119,211
• Equity at exit: $193,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $374,481
• Equity at exit: $417,503

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14210

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Rents YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $436/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,586

Max offer price $199,616

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-26	+0% $-87	+5% $-393	+10% $-467
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-145	+0% $-87	+5% $-28	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-32	base $-87	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	45d	1	0.07mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	25d	1	0.09mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	16d	1	0.12mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	3d	1	0.25mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	3d	1	0.45mi
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	0.56mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	12d	1	0.82mi
102 Wildwood Pl Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	17d	1	0.99mi
700 Hopkins St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,225	$1.11	16d	1	1.05mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.10mi
74 Woodside Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,510	$1.21	3d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    price $214,900 2058-char remark
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $219,900 Active 2058-char remark
16. 2024-03-22
    soldstatus $130,000
17. 2017-06-21
    soldstatus $66,000 Closed Sale or Rented 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 1.5 bath 2 story home. Spacious, freshly painted interior. Nice enclosed front porch. Great value for South Buffalo!

18. 2017-06-20
    soldstatus $66,000
19. 2017-04-24
    status Pending Sale 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 1.5 bath 2 story home. Spacious, freshly painted interior. Nice enclosed front porch. Great value for South Buffalo!

20. 2017-03-09
    listed $69,900 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Nicely renovated 3 bedroom 1.5 bath 2 story home. Spacious, freshly painted interior. Nice enclosed front porch. Great value for South Buffalo!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,598/yr (+$133/mo · 366.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$436
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$4,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,180
• After-tax cash flow: $142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,563
• Household income: $54,197
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.34%
• Current HPI: 431.7951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+207.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $214,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $214,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $219,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-21 Sold (MLS) $66,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-24 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-03-09 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $436 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.