622 Valley Ave SE · Valley City, ND 58072

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1960 8,407 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, one full bath home with a private location nestled on a hill surrounded by trees. Home has natural gas forced air heat and central air. Updated kitchen and appliances. Outside amenities include a front deck and a large shed. Home sold 'As Is. ' Owner/agent. Call today to tour!

Key facts

• Front deck
• Updated kitchen
• Large shed

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FRONT DECK
• LARGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking only
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Main entry on grade; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Lot approximately 0.193 acres (65' x 130')

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, range, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Crawl space basement; Central air; Forced air heating
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($952 rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.5% in Valley City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#30 in ND, #4,920 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley City 2 (town): math 52% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #21 of 53 in ND (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9 units permitted in Barnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barnes County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.05%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,880
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
451 6th Ave NE	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-5%)	22mo	$99,000	$115	42
452 5th Ave NE	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	874 (-4%)	23mo	$98,500	$113	39
433 7th Ave NE	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	968 (+6%)	24mo	$145,000	$150	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $16,887
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $46,755
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58072

• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,023/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $459

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $403	+0% $389	+5% $375	+10% $362
Rent	-10% $314	-5% $352	+0% $389	+5% $427	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $402	base $389	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 2nd St SE Valley City, ND	3.0	1.0	864	$995	$1.15	24d	1	0.39mi
735 4th Ave NE Valley City, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0	640	$650	$1.02	24d	3	0.82mi
847 2nd Ave NW Valley City, ND	2.0	1.0	960	$995	$1.04	24d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $49,000 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Three bedroom, one full bath home with a private location nestled on a hill surrounded by trees. Home has natural gas forced air heat and central air. Updated kitchen and appliances. Outside amenities include a front deck and a large shed. Home sold 'As Is. ' Owner/agent. Call today to tour!

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $49,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Three bedroom, one full bath home with a private location nestled on a hill surrounded by trees. Home has natural gas forced air heat and central air. Updated kitchen and appliances. Outside amenities include a front deck and a large shed. Home sold 'As Is. ' Owner/agent. Call today to tour!

19. 2023-08-29
    historical
20. 2023-05-30
    listed $65,000
21. 2021-06-24
    soldstatus $815,254

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,023
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$914
• − Management: −$914
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $4,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$998
• After-tax cash flow: $3,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley City 2
• NCES district ID: 3818850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $47,717
• Composite: 39.31/100
• National rank: #3992
• State rank: #21 of 53 in ND

Livability — Valley City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #4920

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley City, ND
• County: Barnes County · 7,863 people
• City population: 7,863
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,863
• Household income: $64,375
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Barnes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,119 people
• By 2030: 11,184 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 11,336 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 11,647 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 14,006 · +26.0%
• By 2100: 17,179 · +54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 27% Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barnes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.4% · R 66.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -1.5pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+29.7 2012: R+10.3 2008: R+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.64%
• Current HPI: 130.2036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-94.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $49,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $49,000 GNMLS
• 2023-08-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-30 Listed $65,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $815,254 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,023 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.