100 Patchogue Holbrook Rd · Lake Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

$515,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1970 0.29 ac lot Est $609k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath ranch offering comfortable one-level living in Ronkonkoma. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with an updated eat-in kitchen featuring granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and modern finishes, along with refreshed bathrooms and spacious bedrooms. Full bath features a jetted soaking tub. The bright living and dining areas provide an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining, with sliding glass doors leading to a fully fenced backyard complete with a patio and plenty of room for outdoor gatherings, pets, or play. Additional features include a one-car attached garage, updated flooring in select areas, and generous storag

Key facts

• Jetted soaking tub
• Refreshed bathrooms
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPDATED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• REFRESHED BATHROOMS
• JETTED SOAKING TUB
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking; 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Public water connected; Trash collection service
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Playground; Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil-fired baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Partial attic; No basement; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $515k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-406 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $403k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Lake Ronkonkoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#169 in NY, #2,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hiawatha School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 603 students, 36% FRL); Samoset Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 892 students, 31% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 175 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $321k; list at $515k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $403,059 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $609,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86 Samuel St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,098 (-3%)	11mo	$570,000	$519	68
32 Dennis Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	981 (-13%)	1mo	$535,000	$545	61
10 Jan Ct	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-7%)	8mo	$550,000	$522	59
31 Duncan Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,060 (-6%)	14mo	$565,000	$533	57
17 Acorn St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	12mo	$570,000	$540	57
22 Peter Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	996 (-12%)	13mo	$530,000	$532	54
51 Lynda Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-8%)	14mo	$580,000	$560	51
33 Thorne St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+10%)	6mo	$525,000	$423	48
132 Pleasure Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,016 (-10%)	13mo	$580,000	$571	45
155 Patchogue Holbrook Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	980 (-13%)	14mo	$560,000	$571	45
8 Cleary Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,272 (+13%)	6mo	$550,000	$432	39
165 Smith Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	985 (-13%)	11mo	$620,000	$629	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-117,987
• Equity at exit: $76,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-170,121
• Equity at exit: $44,528

Cash invested: $144,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11779

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax from tax record: −$675 /mo · $8,096/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$846
• Net cashflow: $-406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,544

Max offer price $443,315

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-114	-5% $-260	+0% $-406	+5% $-552	+10% $-697
Rent	-10% $-724	-5% $-565	+0% $-406	+5% $-247	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-275	base $-406	+0.5pp $-539	+1.0pp $-675

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,750
• Closing costs: $15,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Mill Rd Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$4,220	$5.01	0d	14	0.79mi
2 Hawkins Ave Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,009	$5.22	0d	130	1.03mi
147 Lake Shore Rd Ronkonkoma, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	940	$3,379	$3.59	0d	10	1.06mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $515,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $515,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $515,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $515,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $515,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $515,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $515,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 693-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $515,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,096 · $675/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,400 · $700/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,848
• − Property taxes: −$8,096
• − Insurance: −$2,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,869
• − Management: −$3,869
• − Depreciation: −$14,982
• Taxable loss: −$13,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Ronkonkoma

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #2606

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Ronkonkoma, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 38,273
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,206
• Household income: $112,180
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 874.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -569.98%
• Current HPI: 350.0973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+60.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $515,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $321,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,096 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.