4550 N Flowing Wells Rd #65 · Flowing Wells, AZ 85705

$16,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 1978 4,000 sqft lot $19/sqft · 86% below area $700/mo HOA · 60% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

STEPS FROM SWAN LAKE! Welcome to Swan Lake Estates, a gated 55+ community offering resort-style living in central Tucson. Enjoy a scenic lake with fishing and a unique island featuring live music. Community amenities include pickleball, horseshoes, bocce ball, shuffleboard, spa, two pools, billiards, library, two clubhouses, and an exercise room--perfect for an active lifestyle. Lot rent covers water, sewer, and trash for easy, low-maintenance living. Conveniently located near restaurants, shopping, medical services, the Tucson Mall, and the Auto Mall. Ideal for snowbirds or full-time residents looking to enjoy Tucson's beautiful weather year-round.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Unique island
• Billiards

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SCENIC LAKE
• UNIQUE ISLAND
• TWO POOLS
• BILLIARDS
• LIBRARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $16k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 6.1% in Flowing Wells — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $111 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $480 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 60% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,040 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.91%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,000
• List price: $16,000
• Delta: -86.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1257 W Garnette St	0.41mi	3/2.5 (+1)	841 (+0%)	1mo	$140,000	$166	69
1358 W Mohawk Dr	0.30mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	0mo	$115,000	$160	62
1218 W Allegheny St	0.17mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	3mo	$195,000	$203	61
4611 N Camino Feliz	0.38mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	13mo	$125,000	$139	59
1537 W Wabash St	0.41mi	2/2.0	780 (-7%)	8mo	$150,000	$192	58
4737 N Kenwood Ct	0.58mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	4mo	$199,900	$255	58
4761 N Brookline Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0	882 (+5%)	4mo	$209,900	$238	55
620 W Limberlost Dr #18	0.70mi	2/2.0	780 (-7%)	3mo	$25,000	$32	49
850 W Limberlost Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	911 (+8%)	14mo	$118,000	$130	45
1741 W Wetmore Rd #34	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	720 (-14%)	0mo	$19,000	$26	37
1741 W Wetmore Rd #33	0.68mi	2/2.0	720 (-14%)	5mo	$16,000	$22	36
1741 W Wetmore Rd #23	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	720 (-14%)	8mo	$17,500	$24	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $1,878
• Equity at exit: $2,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $606
• Equity at exit: $1,383

Cash invested: $4,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85705

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$84
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$20 /mo · $240/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$700
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $16,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,000
• Closing costs: $480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1326 W Hadley St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	900	$725	$0.81	3d	1	0.32mi
4111 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1131	$1,625	$1.44	24d	3	0.52mi
1100 W River Rd Unit 7 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1026	$2,200	$2.14	20d	1	0.63mi
620 W Limberlost Dr Unit E24 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	672	$1,200	$1.79	24d	1	0.66mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-04 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	16d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-01 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	44d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1241-14 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	670	$895	$1.34	44d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1201-13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,595	$1.59	3d	1	0.68mi
1215 W Roger Rd Unit 1215-11 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	3d	1	0.68mi
1355 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	627	$1,084	$1.73	44d	4	0.72mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	686	$1,343	$1.96	44d	1	0.72mi
5100 N La Canada Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,408	$1.50	44d	1	0.72mi
1501 W Roger Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	44d	1	0.75mi
4213 N Romero Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,045	$1.27	44d	5	0.80mi
1865 W La Osa St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,450	$1.77	44d	1	0.81mi
3802 N Flowing Wells Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	555	$1,100	$1.98	44d	5	0.87mi
1990 W Amy Pl Unit B Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$900	$1.50	20d	1	1.03mi
239 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	680	$795	$1.17	44d	1	1.08mi
822 W Thurber Rd Unit B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	44d	1	1.11mi
4190 N Western Winds Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	918	$1,349	$1.47	24d	1	1.12mi
4190 N Western Winds Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	918	$1,349	$1.47	44d	1	1.12mi
532 W Simmons Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	566	$1,000	$1.77	17d	1	1.13mi
115 W Limberlost Dr Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,350	$1.67	24d	1	1.19mi
1700 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	618	$1,099	$1.78	2d	25	1.19mi
557 W Thurber Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	44d	3	1.22mi
570 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$975	$1.24	44d	13	1.27mi
331 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,082	$1.27	12d	2	1.29mi
60 W Stone Loop Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	588	$1,395	$2.37	2d	46	1.31mi
520 W Prince Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	557	$1,076	$1.93	3d	16	1.32mi
311 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	21d	1	1.33mi
1448 W Kilburn St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	44d	1	1.33mi
1925 W River Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$1,856	$1.77	2d	32	1.33mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,075	$1.72	16d	21	1.36mi
3985 N Stone Ave Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	625	$1,280	$2.05	44d	1	1.36mi
3985 N Stone Ave Unit 248 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$979	$1.40	12d	1	1.37mi
124 W Pastime Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	650	$1,075	$1.65	3d	1	1.42mi
50 W King Rd Unit 09 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$775	$1.29	3d	1	1.49mi
50 W King Rd Apt 11 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	20d	1	1.49mi
269 E Calle Arizona Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	3d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $700 · $8,400/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolsecurity

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $16,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $16,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $16,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $16,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $16,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $16,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $16,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $16,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $16,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $17,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $17,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $17,000 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    STEPS FROM SWAN LAKE! Welcome to Swan Lake Estates, a gated 55+ community offering resort-style living in central Tucson. Enjoy a scenic lake with fishing and a unique island featuring live music. Community amenities include pickleball, horseshoes, bocce ball, shuffleboard, spa, two pools, billiards, library, two clubhouses, and an exercise room--perfect for an active lifestyle. Lot rent covers water, sewer, and trash for easy, low-maintenance living. Conveniently located near restaurants, shopping, medical services, the Tucson Mall, and the Auto Mall. Ideal for snowbirds or full-time residents looking to enjoy Tucson's beautiful weather year-round.

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $18,000 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    STEPS FROM SWAN LAKE! Welcome to Swan Lake Estates, a gated 55+ community offering resort-style living in central Tucson. Enjoy a scenic lake with fishing and a unique island featuring live music. Community amenities include pickleball, horseshoes, bocce ball, shuffleboard, spa, two pools, billiards, library, two clubhouses, and an exercise room--perfect for an active lifestyle. Lot rent covers water, sewer, and trash for easy, low-maintenance living. Conveniently located near restaurants, shopping, medical services, the Tucson Mall, and the Auto Mall. Ideal for snowbirds or full-time residents looking to enjoy Tucson's beautiful weather year-round.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$896
• − Property taxes: −$240
• − Insurance: −$80
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − HOA: −$8,400
• − Depreciation: −$465
• Taxable income: $1,685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$404
• After-tax cash flow: $935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amphitheater Unified District (4406)
• NCES district ID: 0400680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,524
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6135
• State rank: #85 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flowing Wells

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #5288

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flowing Wells, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 54,700
• Household income: $37,194
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4240.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 30% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -163.31%
• Current HPI: 283.0647
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $17,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-10 Listed $18,000 MLSSAZ