12823 Buffalo Run Dr · Riverview, FL 33534

$247,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · Townhouse public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2015 2,073 sqft lot $240/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. REDUCED PRICE on Beautiful 3-bedroom Townhome located in a lovely Gated Community--with no CDD fees! Open floor plan with eye-catching amenities throughout. The kitchen overlooks the spacious living and dining areas, ideal for entertaining or relaxing at home. Spacious lanai and backyard are perfect for relaxing, entertaining or simply enjoying the outdoors—Florida style. This townhome contains many upgrades/new features—to include gorgeous luxury vinyl plank and new appliances. The master suite and two other bedrooms provide plenty of space and a conveniently located laundry room is tucked away upstairs. Along with a 1-car garage, you ge

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open floor plan
• Luxury vinyl plank

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LANAI
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK
• NEW APPLIANCES
• 2 CAR WIDE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption claimed; No CDD
• Financial info: Annual fees $2,880
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Premier Management; Monthly HOA fee $240 (includes pool, sewer, trash, water, maintenance of grounds, escrow reserves); Association approval required; Community features: pool, sidewalks, community mailbox; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Completed condition; 2 stories; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 12843
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Playground; In-ground pool; Asphalt/paved road access; Lot approximately 0.05 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summerfield Crossings Elementary School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,330 of 2,144 statewide, top 63%, 869 students, 53% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,457 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.04%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,913
• Equity at exit: $36,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $7,969
• Equity at exit: $21,399

Cash invested: $69,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33534

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,256/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$240
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,526

Max offer price $216,457

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-106	+0% $-176	+5% $-246	+10% $-316
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-267	+0% $-176	+5% $-85	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-113	base $-176	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,875
• Closing costs: $7,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9907 Hound Chase Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.5	1478	$2,200	$1.49	5d	1	0.10mi
12913 Brookcrest Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,160	$1.46	0d	1	0.34mi
12739 Lemon Pepper Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,989	$1.57	22d	1	0.47mi
12915 Early Run Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,300	$1.38	5d	1	0.82mi
9814 Rustling Breeze Cir Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$2,783	$2.78	0d	35	0.84mi
12805 Avelar Manor Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,375	$1.30	24d	1	0.90mi
10334 Summerview Cir Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1425	$2,180	$1.53	0d	1	0.92mi
10221 Summerview Cir Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,969	$1.33	25d	1	0.95mi
12820 Belvedere Song Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1513	$2,000	$1.32	25d	1	0.98mi
9960 Jonas Salk Dr Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$2,520	$2.39	0d	17	0.98mi
12824 Kings Lake Dr Gibsonton, FL	4.0	3.0	1808	$2,500	$1.38	11d	1	1.06mi
12813 Kings Lake Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1391	$2,650	$1.91	25d	1	1.08mi
7002 Crown Lake Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,995	$1.46	3d	1	1.10mi
10428 Orchid Mist Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1789	$2,035	$1.14	5d	1	1.14mi
12514 Early Run Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,225	$1.20	25d	1	1.14mi
10425 Red Carpet Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	3.0	1688	$2,150	$1.27	21d	1	1.14mi
6944 Crown Lake Dr Gibsonton, FL	4.0	3.0	1809	$2,089	$1.15	17d	1	1.15mi
10328 Soaring Eagle Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,395	$1.55	3d	1	1.16mi
13049 Waterbourne Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,049	$1.26	3d	1	1.17mi
10220 Summer Palm Dr Riverview, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1314	$2,096	$1.59	2d	19	1.21mi
13128 Logan Captiva Ln Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,150	$1.35	25d	1	1.25mi
12961 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$1,890	$1.13	16d	1	1.30mi
12942 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,390	$1.43	0d	1	1.34mi
12942 Utopia Gardens Way Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$2,350	$1.41	3d	1	1.34mi
12604 Montford Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1499	$1,950	$1.30	4d	1	1.35mi
12219 Dawn Vista Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,200	$1.76	5d	1	1.39mi
12315 Foxmoor Peak Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1400	$1,800	$1.29	25d	1	1.41mi
12315 Foxmoor Peak Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1383	$1,700	$1.23	3d	1	1.41mi
13123 Kings Crossing Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,850	$1.36	25d	1	1.42mi
12322 Foxmoor Peak Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$2,200	$1.58	25d	1	1.43mi
10806 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1448	$1,650	$1.14	3d	1	1.44mi
7006 Monarch Park Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1868	$2,425	$1.30	21d	1	1.45mi
10811 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,675	$1.19	25d	1	1.45mi
10811 Brickside Ct Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1408	$1,675	$1.19	18d	1	1.45mi
12938 Fennway Ridge Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,000	$1.30	0d	1	1.45mi
12327 Healey Summit Ln Riverview, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$1,750	$1.26	25d	1	1.46mi
13047 Bridleford Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,025	$1.27	25d	1	1.47mi
12978 Kings Crossing Dr Gibsonton, FL	4.0	3.0	1576	$2,300	$1.46	25d	1	1.47mi
12119 Ledbury Commons Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,950	$1.31	22d	1	1.49mi
12119 Ledbury Commons Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,950	$1.31	25d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $240 · $2,880/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-21
   soldstatus $243,500 Closed
2. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-20
   price $247,500
4. 2026-03-20
   price $249,000
5. 2025-12-25
   listed $252,500 Active
6. 2025-11-05
   historical $2,200
7. 2025-10-11
   listed $2,200
8. 2015-10-31
   historical
9. 2015-10-16
   price $144,990
10. 2015-10-12
    price $146,990
11. 2015-09-18
    status Active
12. 2015-09-17
    status Pending
13. 2015-09-14
    price $148,990
14. 2015-09-14
    price $147,990
15. 2015-09-14
    price $144,990
16. 2015-08-01
    price $146,990
17. 2015-08-01
    price $144,990
18. 2015-07-13
    price $147,990
19. 2015-06-12
    price $149,990
20. 2015-03-25
    listed $152,645 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,256 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,256 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,864
• − Property taxes: −$4,256
• − Insurance: −$1,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,212
• − Management: −$2,212
• − HOA: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$7,200
• Taxable loss: −$6,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,492
• After-tax cash flow: $-617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,740
• Household income: $80,484
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 36% Two or more races 23% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.07%
• Current HPI: 323.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+59.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Sold (MLS) $243,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $247,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-25 Listed $252,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Rental Removed $2,200 STELLARMLS
• 2025-10-11 Listed for Rent $2,200 STELLARMLS
• 2015-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-16 Price Changed $144,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-12 Price Changed $146,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-14 Price Changed $144,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-14 Price Changed $147,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-14 Price Changed $148,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-01 Price Changed $144,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-01 Price Changed $146,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-13 Price Changed $147,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-12 Price Changed $149,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-25 Listed $152,645 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,256 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.