1032 Lake Breeze Dr · Hickory Flat, MS 38633

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1996 2.00 ac lot $88/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home offers three bedrooms two bathrooms, nestled on a spacious 2.53 acre lot. This property is a diamond in the rough, perfect for someone looking to invest a little TLC to transform into a charming home. The large acreage also provides ample space to build another house or add rental property. It's a fantastic opportunity for those with vision!

Key facts

• Add rental property
• 2 acre lot
• Built 1996

Tags

• SPACIOUS 2.53 ACRE LOT
• ADD RENTAL PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $88 monthly fee

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story; Manufactured (Modular) residential home
• Construction: Located on a 2.53-acre lot
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Range; Laminate flooring; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#81 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Union County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #13 of 130 in MS (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.02%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $33,084
• Equity at exit: $59,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $92,547
• Equity at exit: $104,536

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38633

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $150	+0% $116	+5% $82	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $72	+0% $116	+5% $160	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $141	base $116	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,079
• − Management: −$1,079
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$129
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$31
• After-tax cash flow: $1,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County School District
• NCES district ID: 2804350
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,935
• Composite: 42.49/100
• National rank: #3209
• State rank: #13 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hickory Flat

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #10698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,091

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,992 people
• By 2030: 32,294 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 34,789 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 36,987 · +19.3%
• By 2075: 40,835 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 40,538 · +30.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Russian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.1) · D 14.5% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -49.9pp · 2024: -70.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.1 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+49.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.49%
• Current HPI: 126.6904
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $99,000 NEMSBD

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $147 · +51.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.