Cohen Plan · Castroville, TX 78009

$510,990

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,033 sqft · SingleFamily · 131 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Cohen-a home designed for large families and those who love to entertain. Featuring 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, 1 powder bath, a separate formal dining area, a game room, and a spacious outdoor patio, this thoughtfully designed home offers space and flexibility for a variety of lifestyles. The first floor includes a private primary retreat along with a secondary bedroom that is ideal for guests or multigenerational living. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family rooms across the width of the home, creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere.

Key facts

• Master retreat
• Open concept design
• Formal dining area

Tags

• FORMAL DINING AREA
• GAME ROOM
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• MASTER RETREAT
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• TWO OVERSIZED ISLANDS

🏗️ New construction. The $510,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $727,728.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $511k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-774 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $511k).
• Recommended offer: $450k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.6% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 624 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 100d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,386/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($450k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $449,671 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $727,728
• List price: $510,990
• Delta: -29.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
873 County Road 375	0.33mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,037 (+0%)	13mo	$720,000	$237	67
235 Poe	0.47mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,101 (+2%)	8mo	$599,900	$193	58
165 Poe Pkwy	0.40mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,849 (-6%)	8mo	$599,900	$211	56
280 Sittre Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,003 (-1%)	8mo	$545,000	$181	53
117 Poe Pkwy	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,774 (-8%)	11mo	$599,990	$216	51
267 Sweet Rose	0.71mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,094 (+2%)	4mo	$549,000	$177	51
242 Sittre Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,094 (+2%)	12mo	$515,900	$167	50
250 Matthew Path	0.47mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,325 (+10%)	4mo	$699,900	$210	49
239 Sittre Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,324 (+10%)	3mo	$635,000	$191	44
237 Bryant Park	0.54mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,774 (-8%)	11mo	$569,990	$205	42
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,613 (-14%)	3mo	$625,000	$239	41
219 Bryant Park	0.55mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,774 (-8%)	12mo	$588,990	$212	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-167,160
• Equity at exit: $108,507

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-208,734
• Equity at exit: $62,921

Cash invested: $203,764 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 39.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $597,445 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 130 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,816
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$910 /mo · $10,916/yr
• Insurance: −$303
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,131
• Net cashflow: $-774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,366

Max offer price $615,680

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-271	-5% $-523	+0% $-774	+5% $-1,026	+10% $-1,277
Rent	-10% $-1,200	-5% $-987	+0% $-774	+5% $-562	+10% $-349
Rate	-1.0pp $-408	-0.5pp $-589	base $-774	+0.5pp $-963	+1.0pp $-1,155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,932
• Closing costs: $21,832
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$7,200	$1.79	100d	1	0.12mi
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$5,500	$1.37	28d	1	0.12mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	139d	1	0.88mi
169 Sage Sparrow San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2539	$2,150	$0.85	67d	1	1.28mi
162 Owl Burrow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,100	$0.94	0d	1	1.29mi
208 Wild Duck San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,300	$0.97	2d	1	1.32mi
252 Elisabeth Run San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2614	$1,995	$0.76	140d	1	1.36mi
206 Nesting Cyn San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$1,741	$0.70	100d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $530,990

Exterior

• Parking: Three parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Cohen)
• Exterior features: Living area of 3,033 (living space)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Four full baths and one half bath
• Interior features: Active listing — Plan named "Cohen"

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $510,990 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $510,990 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $510,990 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $510,990 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $510,990 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $510,990 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $510,990 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $510,990 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $510,990 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $510,990 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $510,990 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $510,990 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $510,990 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $510,990 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $510,990 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $510,990 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $510,990 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $510,990 Active 107 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $510,990 Active 106 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $510,990 Active 105 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $510,990 Active 104 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $510,990 Active 102 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $510,990 Active 101 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $510,990 Active 100 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $510,990 Active 99 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $510,990 Active 98 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $510,990 Active 97 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $510,990 Active 96 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $510,990 Active 95 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $510,990 Active 94 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $510,990 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $510,990 Active 92 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $510,990 Active 91 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $510,990 Active 90 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $510,990 Active 89 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $510,990 Active 88 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $510,990 Active 87 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $510,990 Active 86 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $510,990 Active 85 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $510,990 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $510,990 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $510,990 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $510,990 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $510,990 Active 77 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $510,990 Active 75 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $510,990 Active 74 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $510,990 Active 72 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $510,990 Active 70 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $510,990 Active 69 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $510,990 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,764
• − Property taxes: −$10,916
• − Insurance: −$3,639
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,170
• − Management: −$5,170
• − Depreciation: −$21,170
• Taxable loss: −$22,199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,328
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $151,650–$272,970 screening

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Significant work is needed on the roof, exterior, flooring, and HVAC system, along with landscaping and interior updates. The home's poor condition and lack of curb appeal make it a high-potential investment for renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof repair — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding repair — Severe wear and peeling paint.
• Major flooring replacement — Severe wear and tear.
• Major paint repair and repainting — Severe wear and peeling paint.
• Major HVAC system replacement — Visible damage to condensers, indicating potential cooling issues.
• Major landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Sparse vegetation and minimal landscaping features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Roof repair and replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale Exterior siding repair and repainting — A new siding and paint job will enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale Paint repair and repainting — A fresh coat of paint will improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing the home's value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained landscape will enhance the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Rental Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates will make the home more appealing to renters and improve its rental value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms will improve the home's overall appeal and value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Loma Alta Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,494
• Household income: $102,724
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $530,990

Exterior

• Parking: Three parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Cohen)
• Exterior features: Living area of 3,033 (living space)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Four full baths and one half bath
• Interior features: Active listing — Plan named "Cohen"