12039 Crooked Creek Ln · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$338,898

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · Land · 283 Days on market

Built 2025 6,969 sqft lot $188/sqft · at area comps Est $345k · at est. $58/mo HOA ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The attractive Greeley plan presents three bedrooms with large walk-in closets & two full bathrooms!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20k ($244k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $339k).
• Recommended offer: $298k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 78.3% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $298,230 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 78.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 257.20%
• DSCR: 12.44
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,848
• List price: $338,898
• Delta: -1.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.08×
• Total profit: $1,240,707
• Equity at exit: $50,531

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 29.98×
• Total profit: $2,749,487
• Equity at exit: $29,302

Cash invested: $94,891 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $28,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,777
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,499/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,965
• Net cashflow: $20,338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,660

Max offer price $338,898

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,724
• Closing costs: $10,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	43d	1	0.94mi
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	22d	1	1.07mi
13342 Pecan Trails Dr Santa Fe, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,700	$1.26	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 104-char remark

   Show marketing remark (104 chars)

   The attractive Greeley plan presents three bedrooms with large walk-in closets & two full bathrooms!

2. 2025-08-13
   price $338,898 104-char remark

   Show marketing remark (104 chars)

   The attractive Greeley plan presents three bedrooms with large walk-in closets & two full bathrooms!

3. 2025-07-25
   listed $347,898 Active 104-char remark

   Show marketing remark (104 chars)

   The attractive Greeley plan presents three bedrooms with large walk-in closets & two full bathrooms!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,202 · $517/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,703/yr (+$392/mo · 313.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $340,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,984
• − Property taxes: −$1,499
• − Insurance: −$1,694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,268
• − Management: −$27,268
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$9,859
• Taxable income: $253,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60,860
• After-tax cash flow: $183,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $338,898 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $347,898 HARMLS

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,499 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.