7 Chico Dr · Sonoma, CA 95476

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 1970 $156/sqft · at area comps Est $190k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked into a desirable location in Pueblo Serena's 55+ community, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a peaceful retreat just moments from the clubhouse, pool, and gathering spaces. Close enough to enjoy it all, yet thoughtfully positioned for added privacy without direct views into neighboring homes. Inside, natural light fills the space, creating a warm and welcoming feel throughout. The layout is comfortable and easy, with a natural flow. Two bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, creative pursuits, or a home office, while two full baths add everyday ease. Surrounded by the charm of Sonoma, this home invites morning walks to the local grocery store, afternoons by the pool, and evenings

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1970
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Pueblo Serena
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,098; Land lease (site rent) applies
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available; 1 parking space
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public sewer; 220V in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide
• Construction: Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Located in a park (manufactured in park); Double wide; Skirted with wood

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Gas cook top; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tubs with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Security patrol; Garden; Close to clubhouse
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 1.4% in Sonoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#146 in CA, #4,943 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.73%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,000
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 2.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 Janero Pl	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	2mo	$190,000	$158	83
185 Pas Pajaros Calle	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	10mo	$145,000	$121	78
160 Chiquita Camino	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	1mo	$199,000	$178	77
180 Pas Pajaros Calle	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	12mo	$215,000	$179	75
148 Chiquita Camino	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-9%)	11mo	$140,000	$123	72
102 Hermosillo Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	20mo	$339,000	$252	66
171 Chiquita Camino	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,160 (-7%)	18mo	$155,500	$134	65
213 Cazares Cir #213	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,160 (-7%)	19mo	$120,000	$103	64
312 Janero Pl	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-8%)	17mo	$115,000	$100	61
341 El Castillo Vista Way #341	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	10mo	$199,000	$184	61
34 Mazatlan Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	20mo	$339,000	$252	60
219 Cazares Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	21mo	$75,000	$68	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $38,849
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $106,051
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $1,216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,351	-5% $1,284	+0% $1,216	+5% $1,149	+10% $1,081
Rent	-10% $960	-5% $1,088	+0% $1,216	+5% $1,344	+10% $1,473
Rate	-1.0pp $1,314	-0.5pp $1,266	base $1,216	+0.5pp $1,166	+1.0pp $1,114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
790 2nd St W Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	975	$2,660	$2.73	14d	3	0.42mi
663 Spring Ln Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$3,200	$3.05	44d	1	0.51mi
655 W Spain St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1349	$3,525	$2.61	14d	1	0.54mi
434 Bernice Ln Unit 1546207P Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$4,564	$4.66	14d	1	0.58mi
342 Church St Sonoma, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	44d	1	0.58mi
340 Church St Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1282	$3,750	$2.93	44d	1	0.59mi
208 Todd Ave Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	14d	1	0.65mi
1211 Broadway Unit 1213 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	24d	1	0.65mi
1207 Broadway Unit 1209 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,750	$3.12	44d	1	0.65mi
1207 Broadway Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	24d	1	0.65mi
210 Tuscany Pl Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	14d	1	0.92mi
21 Ramon St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	24d	1	0.98mi
19019 5th St W Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$3,400	$2.64	14d	1	1.06mi
336 Las Casitas Ct Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.5	1158	$2,500	$2.16	44d	1	1.10mi
126 Blue Wing Dr Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,975	$2.57	14d	2	1.17mi
126 Blue Wing Dr #11 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,200	$2.77	14d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $220,000 Active 867-char remark
18. 2012-06-01
    historical Withdrawn - Cancel
19. 2012-05-24
    status Active
20. 2012-05-19
    status Contingent (Show)
21. 2012-05-05
    price $45,000
22. 2011-08-23
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,115
• − Management: −$3,115
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $12,217
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,932
• After-tax cash flow: $11,662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sonoma

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #4943

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonoma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 35,196
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+254.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $195,000 BAREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $220,000 BAREIS
• 2012-06-01 Delisted — BAREIS
• 2012-05-24 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2012-05-19 Pending — BAREIS
• 2012-05-05 Price Changed $45,000 BAREIS
• 2011-08-23 Listed $55,000 BAREIS