2317 Birch Ave · Lubbock, TX 79404

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1990 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Ceiling fans
• Updated flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Open off-street parking
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl and wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation; Built as a residence (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Fenced backyard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Range hood; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, forced air); Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Low-flow plumbing fixtures; Open floorplan; Recessed lighting; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($938 rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 405 students, 97% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $22,861
• Equity at exit: $39,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $63,872
• Equity at exit: $61,404

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $707

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $206	+0% $182	+5% $158	+10% $134
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $145	+0% $182	+5% $219	+10% $256
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $204	base $182	+0.5pp $160	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	44d	1	0.80mi
211 36th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	44d	1	0.81mi
2015 Avenue L Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$960	$0.98	14d	1	0.86mi
330 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	14d	1	0.87mi
332 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	725	$700	$0.97	22d	1	0.87mi
505 E 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,125	$1.17	14d	1	0.89mi
1516 E 27th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,195	$1.17	44d	1	0.91mi
1313 25th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	780	$875	$1.12	44d	1	0.93mi
1414 Texas Ave Unit 7B Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	900	$925	$1.03	44d	1	0.93mi
1707 E 27th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	672	$725	$1.08	44d	1	0.97mi
1707 E 27th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	672	$595	$0.89	22d	1	0.97mi
1704 E 29th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	832	$775	$0.93	22d	1	1.00mi
609 38th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$550	$0.83	44d	1	1.04mi
512 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$849	$0.97	14d	1	1.05mi
1014 Broadway St Unit B Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	989	$875	$0.88	22d	1	1.08mi
1915 Avenue O Unit O Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$750	$1.02	44d	1	1.09mi
3104 Avenue N Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$785	$1.05	22d	1	1.11mi
1204 36th St Unit b Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$835	$0.96	14d	1	1.13mi
1601 21st St Unit a Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$925	$0.94	14d	1	1.13mi
1609 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	862	$900	$1.04	44d	1	1.17mi
1220 Broadway St Unit 801 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	840	$690	$0.82	44d	1	1.17mi
1220 Broadway St Unit 2001 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	45d	1	1.17mi
1220 Broadway St Unit 1704 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1098	$999	$0.91	44d	1	1.17mi
1220 Broadway St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,500	$1.61	14d	7	1.18mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$750	$0.69	44d	1	1.18mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$695	$0.64	22d	1	1.18mi
1610 28th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$750	$0.71	14d	1	1.19mi
1608 29th St Unit C Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$650	$0.96	44d	1	1.19mi
1608 29th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	694	$750	$1.08	14d	1	1.19mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	14d	1	1.19mi
1202 Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,341	$1.46	14d	13	1.23mi
1615 16th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	850	$649	$0.76	22d	1	1.24mi
519 42nd St Apt A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1092	$895	$0.82	14d	1	1.26mi
220 44th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$910	$0.93	14d	1	1.29mi
1604 W AVE Unit 5 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	44d	1	1.32mi
1604 W AVE Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	44d	1	1.32mi
1724 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$925	$1.09	44d	1	1.36mi
1102 42nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	574	$495	$0.86	22d	1	1.36mi
2604 S 2604 Ave S A Unit 2604 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	572	$625	$1.09	44d	1	1.38mi
2010 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$599	$0.96	14d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $85,000 Active
2. 2026-05-11
   soldstatus
3. 2026-05-11
   soldstatus
4. 1998-02-01
   soldstatus
5. 1990-07-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$629/yr (+$52/mo · 67.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$900
• − Management: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$208
• After-tax cash flow: $1,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $85,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $927 · +80.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.