000 Mill St #2 · Buffalo, MO 65622

$224,900

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,014 sqft · MultiFamily · 115 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 0.57 ac lot $112/sqft · 9% above area Est $206k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning new construction 3 bed, 2 bath duplex featuring high-end finishes and a thoughtfully designed open-concept layout. This home offers modern cabinetry, upgraded fixtures, quality flooring, and designer touches throughout. The spacious living and dining areas flow seamlessly, creating the perfect space for entertaining or everyday living. Step outside to a private back patio ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Low-maintenance living with luxury appeal -- perfect for homeowners or investors alike.

Key facts

• Quality flooring
• New construction
• Modern cabinetry

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN CABINETRY
• UPGRADED FIXTURES
• QUALITY FLOORING
• PRIVATE BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $225k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative. Per door: $-16/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#181 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dallas County R-I (town): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #278 of 324 in MO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,800 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,640
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: 9.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-36,601
• Equity at exit: $35,443

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-32,769
• Equity at exit: $22,742

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65622

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 19.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,374/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $220,398

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $47	+0% $-31	+5% $-109	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-107	+0% $-31	+5% $45	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $26	base $-31	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-149

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$1,928
Total (2 units)			$1,928

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $224,900 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $224,900 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,900 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,900 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-02-24
    listed $224,900 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Stunning new construction 3 bed, 2 bath duplex featuring high-end finishes and a thoughtfully designed open-concept layout. This home offers modern cabinetry, upgraded fixtures, quality flooring, and designer touches throughout. The spacious living and dining areas flow seamlessly, creating the perfect space for entertaining or everyday living. Step outside to a private back patio ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Low-maintenance living with luxury appeal -- perfect for homeowners or investors alike.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$3,374
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$4,204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new construction multi-family home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a spacious layout, ideal for investors or homeowners.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Furniture — Ready for immediate move-in

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Furniture — Ready for immediate move-in ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2906120
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,067
• Composite: 24.19/100
• National rank: #7735
• State rank: #278 of 324 in MO

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #9481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, MO
• Population (ZIP): 7,591

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,419 people
• By 2030: 14,668 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,045 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 11,341 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 8,096 · -47.5%
• By 2100: 5,656 · -63.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scottish 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.3% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.81%
• Current HPI: 256.066
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $224,900 SOMO