3254 Jersey Dr · Midlothian, TX 76065

$574,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,807 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 9,148 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21301990 - Built by J Houston Homes - Jul 2026 completion! ~ NEW JOHN HOUSTON HOME IN REDDEN FARMS IN MIDLOTHIAN ISD! This two-story smart home offers 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms with a media room. The 12-foot ceilings, along with the floor-to-ceiling windows, make this home feel GRAND. The chef inspired kitchen features a 36 gas cooktop, single wall oven, pot and pan drawers, all-wood custom cabinets, a large island, and a trash rollout, creating an inviting atmosphere for cooking and entertaining. The primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a deluxe free standing tub, dual vanity, and a spacious primary closet

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available; Subdivision: Redden Farms; County: Ellis
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Redden Farms HOA); HOA fee $750 annually (includes management fees); Community pool; Curbs; Jogging/bike path; Playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20' x 20'); 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car single door
• Security: Security system; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; One story; New construction (incomplete, year built 2026); Not attached to another property
• Construction: Brick and rock/stone construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Few trees; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; One living area; One dining area; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-582 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $472k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (36.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 22% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1133 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $363,211 (36.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-125,589
• Equity at exit: $85,733

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-137,532
• Equity at exit: $49,715

Cash invested: $160,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1133
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,596/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$763
• Net cashflow: $-582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,368

Max offer price $472,264

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-256	-5% $-419	+0% $-582	+5% $-744	+10% $-907
Rent	-10% $-868	-5% $-725	+0% $-582	+5% $-438	+10% $-295
Rate	-1.0pp $-292	-0.5pp $-435	base $-582	+0.5pp $-731	+1.0pp $-882

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,748
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3825 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	5.0	4.0	3771	$4,500	$1.19	44d	1	0.44mi
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	44d	1	0.45mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2400	$8,950	$3.73	44d	1	0.86mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Unit 1389216P Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2389	$15,575	$6.52	25d	1	0.86mi
4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,100	$1.34	0d	1	0.91mi
1609 Whisperwood Way Midlothian, TX	5.0	4.0	3998	$4,295	$1.07	8d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: trashgas

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $574,990 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $574,990 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $574,990 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 626-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $574,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,596 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,522 · $877/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,926/yr (+$744/mo · 559.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,208
• − Property taxes: −$1,596
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,487
• − Management: −$3,487
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable loss: −$17,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,212
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $574,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+49.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,596 · +49.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.