2688 Vz County Road 3810 · West Tawakoni, TX 75169

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2020 1.00 ac lot $115/sqft · 5% above area Est $95k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home situated on approximately 1 acre of land, offering comfort, space, and privacy. The home features a functional layout with a comfortable living area, practical kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms. The property does need some work, making it a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate or add value. The spacious lot provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, parking, or future improvements. Located in a peaceful setting with convenient access to nearby roads and amenities, this property is ideal for homeowners or investors looking for land with flexibility and potential.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Practical kitchen
• Functional layout

Tags

• 1 ACRE OF LAND
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREA
• PRACTICAL KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LOT
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 284 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.39%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 5.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 Private Road 7837	0.63mi	2/2.0	924 (+6%)	0mo	$95,000	$103	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $8,154
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $38,488
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,403/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $864

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Option Contract 632-char remark

   Show marketing remark (632 chars)

   2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home situated on approximately 1 acre of land, offering comfort, space, and privacy. The home features a functional layout with a comfortable living area, practical kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms. The property does need some work, making it a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate or add value. The spacious lot provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, parking, or future improvements. Located in a peaceful setting with convenient access to nearby roads and amenities, this property is ideal for homeowners or investors looking for land with flexibility and potential.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $99,900 Active 632-char remark

   Show marketing remark (632 chars)

   2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home situated on approximately 1 acre of land, offering comfort, space, and privacy. The home features a functional layout with a comfortable living area, practical kitchen, and well-sized bedrooms. The property does need some work, making it a great opportunity for buyers looking to renovate or add value. The spacious lot provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, parking, or future improvements. Located in a peaceful setting with convenient access to nearby roads and amenities, this property is ideal for homeowners or investors looking for land with flexibility and potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$425/yr (+$35/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,403
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$762
• After-tax cash flow: $3,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wills Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845950
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,534
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6721
• State rank: #556 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $99,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,403 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.