3212 Glade Dr · Avalon, FL 32583

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1962 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE ~ Located just minutes from I-10 ~ 3 bedrooms ~ 2 baths ~ Fenced in yard ~ Kitchen complete with Stove, Microwave, and REFRIGERATOR ~ Inside Laundry ~ Large deck out back ~ Call today for your personal tour!

Key facts

• Shopping
• Quiet neighborhood
• Schools

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROUTES
• SHOPPING
• SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 4.5% in Avalon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#648 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.33%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3288 Damon Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	4mo	$255,000	$204	77
3324 Bonfire Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	3mo	$200,000	$167	77
3286 Damon Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	7mo	$249,900	$200	74
5259 Sonoma Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+9%)	1mo	$408,500	$311	62
3007 N 21st Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+10%)	2mo	$270,000	$205	59
2944 N 25th Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	6mo	$235,000	$204	57
3029 N 21st Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+13%)	1mo	$210,000	$155	56
5263 Sonoma Ct	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (+8%)	5mo	$390,500	$300	56
5318 Tuscaloosa St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,053 (-12%)	6mo	$234,900	$223	53
5209 San Miguel St	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,269 (+6%)	5mo	$349,000	$275	53
2952 N 17th Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+9%)	7mo	$280,000	$215	48
2887 N 24th Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-15%)	6mo	$220,000	$216	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $53,272
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $148,340
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,167/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $1,061

Break-even live

Break-even rent $911

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3015 N 33rd Ave Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,950	$1.42	23d	1	0.96mi
2989 N 5th Ave Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,400	$2.10	23d	1	1.18mi
5604 Shooting Star Ct Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$2,300	$1.74	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-11-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-23
   price $110,000
3. 2025-08-08
   listed $115,000 Active
4. 2020-12-02
   soldstatus $110,000
5. 2020-11-30
   soldstatus $110,000 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   NO DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE ~ Located just minutes from I-10 ~ 3 bedrooms ~ 2 baths ~ Fenced in yard ~ Kitchen complete with Stove, Microwave, and REFRIGERATOR ~ Inside Laundry ~ Large deck out back ~ Call today for your personal tour!

6. 2020-09-21
   listed $99,900 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   NO DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE ~ Located just minutes from I-10 ~ 3 bedrooms ~ 2 baths ~ Fenced in yard ~ Kitchen complete with Stove, Microwave, and REFRIGERATOR ~ Inside Laundry ~ Large deck out back ~ Call today for your personal tour!

7. 2011-10-03
   soldstatus $63,000
8. 2011-09-27
   soldstatus $63,000 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   Great getaway location for boating enthusiasts ~ Only 1 minute from the Mulat Bayou Boat Ramp and just another 5 minutes to the Archie Glover Park Boat Ramp, access to Escambia Bay ~ Nearly a full 1/3 acre ~ Home is Clean inside and out ~ Seller in the process of converting the office into the 3rd bedroom and will be done within a few weeks ~ Fenced backyard with access from the long driveway giving you plenty of room to park your boat ~ Cute Kitchen ~ Door from the kitchen leads out to the backyard and the large 14 x 26 foot wooden deck giving you plenty of room to entertain and enjoy the catch of the day ~ Located just a few minutes from Interstate-10 and the Avalon exit...

9. 2011-04-14
   listed $69,900 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   Great getaway location for boating enthusiasts ~ Only 1 minute from the Mulat Bayou Boat Ramp and just another 5 minutes to the Archie Glover Park Boat Ramp, access to Escambia Bay ~ Nearly a full 1/3 acre ~ Home is Clean inside and out ~ Seller in the process of converting the office into the 3rd bedroom and will be done within a few weeks ~ Fenced backyard with access from the long driveway giving you plenty of room to park your boat ~ Cute Kitchen ~ Door from the kitchen leads out to the backyard and the large 14 x 26 foot wooden deck giving you plenty of room to entertain and enjoy the catch of the day ~ Located just a few minutes from Interstate-10 and the Avalon exit...

10. 1998-05-05
    soldstatus $38,000
11. 1987-03-01
    soldstatus $30,500
12. 1983-11-01
    soldstatus $22,000
13. 1977-04-01
    soldstatus $9,000
14. 1975-12-01
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,167 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,167 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,167
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,164
• − Management: −$2,164
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $11,643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,794
• After-tax cash flow: $9,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Avalon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #648
• US rank: #12530

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1122.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-30 Sold (MLS) $110,000 PARMLS
• 2020-09-21 Listed $99,900 PARMLS
• 2011-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-27 Sold (MLS) $63,000 PARMLS
• 2011-04-14 Listed $69,900 PARMLS
• 1998-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1987-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records
• 1983-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1977-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 1975-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,167 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.