251 Patterson Rd Unit F22 · Haines City, FL 33844

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 546 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1994 3,999 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful, well-maintained Florida getaway or perfect full-time residence located in a highly desirable 55+ gated community in the heart of Central Florida — where you own your own land. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features a covered parking area at the front and a bright, open floor plan with laminate wood flooring throughout the kitchen, dining, and living areas. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living space. The primary bathroom includes a tub/shower combination and built-in storage, while the second bathroom features a walk-in shower, vanity, and toilet. The second bedroom is spacious with a walk-in closet. A convenient Florida room leads to th

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open floor plan
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• PRIMARY BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residential manufactured home; Furnished; Homestead exempt
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $80.83; annual total $970); Association includes pool, recreational facilities, private road, escrow reserves; Association approval not required; Senior community; Pets allowed; Community features: clubhouse, community mailbox, deed restrictions, golf, golf carts allowed, association-owned recreation

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; South-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal/other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.09-acre lot; Paved road access
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed front porch; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Outdoor storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Florida room; Inside utility; Storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $120k implies a 860% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.03%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,038
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $9,696
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,013

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Patterson Rd Unit C13 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	532	$1,100	$2.07	23d	1	0.13mi
1131 Pomelo St Unit B Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	415	$1,350	$3.25	23d	1	1.39mi
1800 N 12th St Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	23d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    status $120,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-22
    status Pending
14. 2026-04-30
    status Active
15. 2026-03-03
    status Pending
16. 2026-02-27
    soldstatus Closed
17. 2026-01-03
    status Pending
18. 2025-12-17
    listed $120,000 Active
19. 1994-04-06
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $488 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 104.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$367
• After-tax cash flow: $3,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+860.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Sold (MLS) — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $488 · +35.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.