Arcadia Front Load Garage Plan · Waldorf, MD 20695

$399,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,117 sqft · Townhouse · 154 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three-story townhome features an expansive first-floor flex space that can function as a recreation room ideal for entertainment and hosting guests, with a convenient back entrance. Upstairs is an open layout shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen, along with an optional deck for outdoor living. On the top floor is the luxe owner's suite with a private full-sized bathroom and two bedrooms.

Key facts

• Recreation room
• Luxe owner's suite
• Optional deck

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR FLEX SPACE
• RECREATION ROOM
• OPEN LAYOUT
• OPTIONAL DECK
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE FULL-SIZED BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $399,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $460,008.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $387k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $339k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mary H. Matula Elementary School (math 14% / reading 23%, grade F, #393 of 860 statewide, top 46%, 551 students, 36% FRL); Milton M. Somers Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 666 students, 39% FRL); St. Charles High School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #148 of 222 statewide, top 67%, 1,569 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,778 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $460,008
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -13.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5335 Tweeddale Pl	0.22mi	3/3.0	2,212 (+4%)	3mo	$465,000	$210	77
5802 John Keats Pl	0.30mi	3/3.0	2,089 (-1%)	8mo	$410,000	$196	76
11405 Sandhurst Pl	0.49mi	3/3.0	2,145 (+1%)	1mo	$420,000	$196	72
5809 John Keats Pl	0.31mi	3/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	1mo	$430,000	$190	71
5907 Kate Chopin Pl	0.48mi	3/3.5	2,093 (-1%)	2mo	$405,000	$194	70
5921 Kate Chopin Pl	0.50mi	3/3.5	2,085 (-2%)	7mo	$399,999	$192	64
5593 Barnstormers Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,160 (+2%)	2mo	$430,000	$199	64
5357 Blue Crab Ln	0.65mi	3/3.0	2,068 (-2%)	4mo	$404,900	$196	60
11521 Charlotte Bronte Ln	0.37mi	3/3.0	2,400 (+13%)	2mo	$455,000	$190	56
11421 Sawgrass Pl	0.44mi	3/3.0	2,382 (+12%)	5mo	$435,000	$183	53
11484 Stockport Pl	0.42mi	3/3.0	1,833 (-13%)	6mo	$399,900	$218	51
11480 Mary Shelley Pl	0.45mi	4/4.5 (+1)	2,352 (+11%)	6mo	$459,900	$196	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-106,505
• Equity at exit: $68,589

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-133,759
• Equity at exit: $39,773

Cash invested: $128,802 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 46 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,990 ($208/sqft)
• Median days on market: 56 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 20695

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,388 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$575 /mo · $6,900/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$711
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,024

Max offer price $387,271

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-344	+0% $-503	+5% $-662	+10% $-821
Rent	-10% $-770	-5% $-636	+0% $-503	+5% $-369	+10% $-235
Rate	-1.0pp $-271	-0.5pp $-386	base $-503	+0.5pp $-622	+1.0pp $-743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,002
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5457 Spotswood Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2180	$3,200	$1.47	23d	1	0.17mi
11177 Southport Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1718	$2,950	$1.72	3d	1	0.27mi
5401 Phillis Wheatley Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2688	$3,500	$1.30	93d	1	0.27mi
5754 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2220	$3,500	$1.58	93d	1	0.29mi
5764 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	2.5	2460	$3,500	$1.42	3d	1	0.32mi
11472 Stockport Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	3.5	2418	$3,500	$1.45	93d	1	0.40mi
4165 Brodie Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2544	$3,000	$1.18	66d	1	0.47mi
11180 Conway Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1765	$3,418	$1.94	0d	10	0.48mi
11687 Emily Dickinson Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2496	$3,500	$1.40	12d	1	0.48mi
4152 Skipton Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2529	$3,300	$1.30	33d	1	0.50mi
5972 Kate Chopin Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2627	$3,100	$1.18	43d	1	0.54mi
5525 Peanuts Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	4.0	2160	$3,400	$1.57	93d	1	0.59mi
5427 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2160	$3,169	$1.47	0d	1	0.64mi
5435 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.5	2646	$3,650	$1.38	67d	1	0.66mi
5435 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.5	2646	$3,600	$1.36	64d	1	0.66mi
5692 Glencoe Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1942	$3,254	$1.67	3d	4	0.66mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	62d	1	0.76mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	73d	1	0.76mi
5423 Saint Rita Dr Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2268	$3,000	$1.32	93d	1	0.81mi
5616 Ludlow Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	1871	$3,050	$1.63	3d	1	0.83mi
10939 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,500	$1.60	73d	1	0.87mi
10933 Drummond Pl Unit 10933 White Plains, MD	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	54d	1	0.88mi
10893 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,250	$1.48	71d	1	0.92mi
10626 Roundstone Ln White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2736	$3,800	$1.39	93d	1	0.95mi
3908 Glacier Bay Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	2.5	2388	$3,200	$1.34	39d	1	0.96mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	48d	1	0.99mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	62d	1	0.99mi
11789 Sunset Ridge Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,950	$1.60	46d	1	1.29mi
11703 Palm Desert Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	8d	1	1.34mi
11696 Palm Desert Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,900	$1.69	66d	1	1.37mi
11777 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1944	$2,800	$1.44	93d	1	1.45mi
11748 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,750	$1.48	73d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-06
   days on market $399,990 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-08-05
   days on market $399,990 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-08-04
   days on market $399,990 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-08-03
   days on market $399,990 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-07-31
   days on market $399,990 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-07-30
   days on market $399,990 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-07-28
   days on market $399,990 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-07-26
   days on market $399,990 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $399,990 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $399,990 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $399,990 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 132 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 131 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 130 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 129 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 128 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 127 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $399,990 Active 126 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $399,990 Active 124 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 123 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 122 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 121 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 120 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 119 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $399,990 Active 118 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 117 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $399,990 Active 116 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 115 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $399,990 Active 114 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $399,990 Active 113 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 109 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 108 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 105 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $399,990 Active 104 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $399,990 Active 103 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 102 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 100 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 96 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,990 Active 95 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,990 Active 94 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 91 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 90 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 89 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,990 Active 88 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,768
• − Property taxes: −$6,900
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,252
• − Management: −$3,252
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable loss: −$14,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,408
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This three-story townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and ample living space. It is move-in ready and offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — A modern backsplash can add visual interest and value to the kitchen. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mary H. Matula Elementary School F MD #393/860 Nat'l #34,688/41,679 Middle Milton M. Somers Middle School F MD #97/225 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High La Plata High School B- MD #62/222 Nat'l #3,176/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 176,616 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,407
• Household income: $141,959
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 61% White 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 226.972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $399,990 Zillow