39200 Canyonville Ct · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$379,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,461 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2021 10,619 sqft lot Est $396k · at est. $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 39200 Canyonville Ct, nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in the desirable Cimarron Creek community! Built in 2021, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen opens seamlessly to the living and dining areas and features modern finishes, ample storage, and abundant natural light. Recent upgrades include luxury vinyl plank flooring, epoxy garage floors, a whole-home water filtration system, sprinkler system, extended driveway and sidewalk, enclosed back patio, and an 8x10 storage shed. Situated on a generously sized lot, this home offers plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. Conveni

Key facts

• Cimarron creek
• Spacious kitchen
• Modern finishes

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• CIMARRON CREEK
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• MODERN FINISHES
• AMPLE STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Goodwin & Company); Annual HOA fee of $996; Association amenities include clubhouse and pool; fee covers clubhouse and recreation facilities; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Located on a cul-de-sac; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Enclosed porch; Patio; Deck; Screened porch; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric fireplace (1); Washer/dryer hookup with electric dryer connection
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (46.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bear Branch El (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 579 students, 28% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,105 (46.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.92%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $396,221
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8741 Lookout Peak Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	2,450 (-0%)	10mo	$394,999	$161	89
8744 Ute Creek Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	2,418 (-2%)	7mo	$359,000	$148	77
8632 Cimarron Mesa Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,498 (+2%)	16mo	$364,950	$146	68
8804 Ute Creek Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,579 (+5%)	8mo	$365,000	$142	62
8910 Diamante Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,500 (+2%)	6mo	$655,000	$262	60
3803 Cimarron Gap Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,208 (-10%)	6mo	$319,900	$145	57
8609 Cimarron Mesa Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,169 (-12%)	12mo	$350,000	$161	54
3933 Eagle Nest Lake Ln	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,736 (+11%)	11mo	$395,750	$145	51
3845 Tolby Creek Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,829 (+15%)	15mo	$345,000	$122	48
31526 Agassi Ct	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,603 (+6%)	16mo	$639,900	$246	46
31518 Agassi Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,691 (+9%)	11mo	$598,500	$222	42
8911 Sendera Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,794 (+14%)	1mo	$750,000	$268	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $133,194
• Equity at exit: $342,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $433,564
• Equity at exit: $738,237

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$855 /mo · $10,255/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-1,057

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,910

Max offer price $205,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-842	-5% $-950	+0% $-1,057	+5% $-1,165	+10% $-1,272
Rent	-10% $-1,260	-5% $-1,159	+0% $-1,057	+5% $-956	+10% $-854
Rate	-1.0pp $-866	-0.5pp $-960	base $-1,057	+0.5pp $-1,156	+1.0pp $-1,256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3969 Eagle Nest Lake Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	2986	$2,895	$0.97	15d	1	0.21mi
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	0d	22	1.12mi
30685 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,747	$1.49	0d	46	1.35mi
7210 Alava Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2031	$2,235	$1.10	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $379,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,255 · $855/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,255 · $855/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$10,255
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,469
• − Management: −$2,469
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$19,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,697
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $379,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,255 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.