3048 M St SE · Washington, DC 20019

$230,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1944 Est $362k · 36% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the charming Hillcrest neighborhood, this delightful Colonial twin home, built in 1944, exudes warmth and character. With two spacious bedrooms and a full bathroom, this residence is designed for comfort and functionality. The inviting wood floors throughout create a cozy atmosphere, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The improved basement offers additional space for a home office, play area, or storage, catering to your lifestyle needs. The expansive yard provides a blank canvas for gardening or outdoor gatherings, allowing you to create your own personal oasis. Hillcrest is not just a place to live; it's a vibrant community. Residents enjoy easy access to local parks

Key facts

• Improved basement
• Expansive yard
• Vibrant community

Tags

• IMPROVED BASEMENT
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• LOCAL PARKS
• VIBRANT COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $677 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,563/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 5115% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.62%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $361,938
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1336 30th St SE	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	12mo	$430,000	$384	70
3426 Nash Pl SE	0.41mi	3/2.0	999 (-7%)	3mo	$360,000	$360	63
2003 Fairlawn Ave SE	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,085 (+1%)	5mo	$285,000	$263	60
3304 E St SE	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,161 (+8%)	2mo	$125,000	$108	59
722 32nd St SE	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	935 (-13%)	7mo	$146,000	$156	55
2235 Prout St SE	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,129 (+5%)	20mo	$380,000	$337	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $13,899
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $102,751
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20019

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,563 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $543/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $808	-5% $743	+0% $677	+5% $612	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $475	-5% $576	+0% $677	+5% $779	+10% $880
Rate	-1.0pp $793	-0.5pp $736	base $677	+0.5pp $618	+1.0pp $557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Randle Cir SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,477	$2.25	25d	1	0.15mi
2932 Nelson Pl SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	800	$2,500	$3.12	25d	1	0.18mi
2929 Nelson Pl SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	5d	1	0.20mi
2929 Nelson Pl SE Unit 2 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	25d	1	0.20mi
2925-2929 Pennsylvania Ave SE Unit 106 Washington, DC	4.0	1.0	988	$4,200	$4.25	25d	1	0.37mi
2925-2929 Pennsylvania Ave SE Unit 204 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	980	$3,000	$3.06	4d	1	0.37mi
2925-2929 Pennsylvania Ave SE Unit 106 Washington, DC	4.0	1.0	980	$4,200	$4.29	4d	1	0.37mi
2418 L'Enfant Sq SE Unit 8 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	5d	1	0.42mi
1525 28th St SE Unit 302 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	25d	1	0.44mi
3101 E St SE Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	1283	$2,500	$1.95	21d	1	0.46mi
1707 29th St SE Unit 2 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	3d	1	0.50mi
2821 R St SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	853	$1,650	$1.93	25d	1	0.50mi
1616 27th St SE Unit 6 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,850	$2.59	25d	1	0.51mi
2801 R St SE Unit 2 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	700	$1,569	$2.24	25d	1	0.52mi
1800 28th Pl SE #201 Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1132	$2,800	$2.47	3d	1	0.56mi
2515 R St SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	812	$1,755	$2.16	6d	2	0.62mi
2215 Minnesota Ave SE Unit 18 Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	990	$4,500	$4.55	25d	1	0.67mi
2215 Minnesota Ave SE Unit 3 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	25d	1	0.67mi
2440 S St SE Unit 4 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	800	$2,450	$3.06	8d	1	0.69mi
3313 C St SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,343	$1.79	2d	2	0.71mi
3600 Ely Pl SE Washington, DC	1.0–3.0	1.0	719	$2,578	$3.58	3d	10	0.72mi
2003 Fairlawn Ave SE Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1500	$5,800	$3.87	3d	1	0.76mi
319 Anacostia Rd SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	724	$1,035	$1.43	25d	1	0.76mi
1928 Naylor Rd SE Unit 503 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	750	$1,595	$2.13	15d	1	0.77mi
1928 Naylor Rd SE Unit 102 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	750	$1,482	$1.98	2d	1	0.77mi
1955 Fairlawn Ave SE Unit 2A Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,499	$2.50	25d	1	0.77mi
305 37th St SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	787	$1,550	$1.97	25d	1	0.83mi
2562 Naylor Rd SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	790	$2,075	$2.63	3d	21	0.84mi
330 37th St SE Unit T2 Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1400	$3,300	$2.36	25d	1	0.85mi
300 37th St SE Unit 101 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	25d	1	0.86mi
3532 Minnesota Ave SE Unit 3 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	25d	1	0.87mi
1901 C St SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$3,504	$4.18	2d	11	0.90mi
2112 34th St SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.5	1284	$3,300	$2.57	25d	1	0.94mi
1618 18th St SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	25d	1	0.94mi
3539 A St SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	807	$1,403	$1.74	18d	1	0.99mi
2300 Good Hope Rd SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$1,913	$1.88	25d	6	0.99mi
3738 D St SE Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	542	$1,549	$2.86	8d	12	0.99mi
2202 U Pl SE Washington, DC	2.0	1.5	1232	$3,500	$2.84	25d	1	1.00mi
6 Barney Cir SE Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	11d	1	1.01mi
1720 R St SE Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	25d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   soldstatus $230,000
2. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-09
   price $230,000
4. 2026-03-05
   status Active
5. 2026-03-02
   historical
6. 2026-02-06
   price $249,900
7. 2026-01-07
   price $270,750
8. 2025-12-02
   listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DC · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $543 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $973 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$430/yr (+$36/mo · 79.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$543
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,460
• − Management: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $4,566
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,096
• After-tax cash flow: $7,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 63,380
• Household income: $58,296
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5115.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Dominican 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -416.91%
• Current HPI: 326.4481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

-19.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $230,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $270,750 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $543 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.