8054 S & 8042 S Bending Birch Cir · Knik River, AK 99654

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2002 Poor condition 0.98 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two lots totaling close to 1 acre with approx. 1400 sf fixer up cabin. Located at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac near the base of Pioneer Peak. Eklutna Tail Race, Jim Creek Recreational Area and many hiking trails are just a few minutes away! Close drive to Palmer or Wasilla and excellent commute location to Anchorage. Adjoining approx. 4 acre lot, 10720 S Old Glenn Hwy also available for sale.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Eklutna tail race
• Near pioneer peak

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• NEAR PIONEER PEAK
• EKLUTNA TAIL RACE
• JIM CREEK RECREATIONAL AREA
• HIKING TRAILS
• COMMUTE LOCATION TO ANCHORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Not newly constructed; Dettached property (not attached); Built in 2002; Wood frame construction; Other foundation
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covenant/restriction on the property; Road service area; Gravel road access; Waterfront property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (total)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (total 2 baths)
• Interior features: Bedroom and bathroom on main level; Telephone hookup; Vaulted ceilings; Wood stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#243 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Butte Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #61 of 156 statewide, top 41%, 274 students, 43% FRL); Palmer Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 36 statewide, top 69%, 594 students, 46% FRL); Palmer High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #28 of 61 statewide, top 50%, 760 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.58%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13089 E Wycoff Dr	0.30mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$210,000	$156	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $47,903
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $105,631
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $1,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 397-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $85,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $12,121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,909
• After-tax cash flow: $9,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant work is needed on the roof, exterior, interior, and landscaping to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage visible
• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering
• Major flooring — Exposed subflooring
• Major interior walls — Exposed framing
• Major bathrooms — Exposed plumbing and wiring
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Exposed components
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Critical to safety and appearance
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both flooring installation — Provides a finished look and comfort
• Both interior wall finishing — Enhances living space and value
• Both bathroom finishing — Improves functionality and value
• Both HVAC/mechanical upgrades — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping and fencing — Enhances curb appeal and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Severe weathering	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Exposed subflooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Exposed framing	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Exposed plumbing and wiring	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Exposed components	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Critical to safety and appearance ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both flooring installation — Provides a finished look and comfort ↑
• Both interior wall finishing — Enhances living space and value ↑
• Both bathroom finishing — Improves functionality and value ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanical upgrades — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping and fencing — Enhances curb appeal and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik River

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #25626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik River, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 872.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $85,000 AKMLS