4460 Welota Dr · Jackson, MS 39209

$45,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,241 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1957 0.46 ac lot $20/sqft · 15% below area Est $53k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Subject property is sold as-is with no warranties. Property is 2241 sqft of pure potential seperate living area, dining area, and four bedrooms with two baths. Large den lower area, covered patio, and large lot. Very quite street with no adjacent homes or neighbors in area.

Key facts

• Large den lower area
• Very quiet street
• Separate living area

Tags

• SEPARATE LIVING AREA
• DINING AREA
• LARGE DEN LOWER AREA
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE LOT
• VERY QUIET STREET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.46 acres with a rectangular, fenced layout

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with concrete surface
• Security: Deadbolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water available and connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One-and-a-half story; Accessible approach with ramp
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Asbestos construction material; Conventional and slab foundation; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Patio; Rear porch; Back yard fencing (chain link); Storage building; Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Wall furnace; Wood heating option; Central air conditioning; Attic fan; Ceiling fans; Wall air conditioning units
• Interior features: Vented exhaust fan; Fireplace in the living room; Aluminum frame and storm windows; Deadbolt locks; Crawl space basement; Total of 7 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located on the lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baker Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #356 of 375 statewide, top 98%, 211 students, 100% FRL); Kirksey Middle School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #152 of 179 statewide, top 88%, 247 students, 100% FRL); Provine High School (math 4% / reading 15%, grade F, #179 of 197 statewide, top 92%, 774 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.91%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,188
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -15.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Rowland Ave	0.30mi	4/3.0	1,942 (-13%)	1mo	$27,500	$14	59
112 Kildare Ct	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,474 (+10%)	23mo	$45,900	$19	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $65,319
• Equity at exit: $40,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 13.74×
• Total profit: $160,475
• Equity at exit: $87,425

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39209

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,790/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $511

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $665	-5% $652	+0% $640	+5% $627	+10% $614
Rent	-10% $535	-5% $587	+0% $640	+5% $692	+10% $744
Rate	-1.0pp $662	-0.5pp $651	base $640	+0.5pp $628	+1.0pp $616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Barbara Ave Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1584	$850	$0.54	23d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $45,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $45,000 Active 274-char remark
19. 1998-01-12
    soldstatus
20. 1966-03-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,790
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,793
• After-tax cash flow: $5,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,776
• Household income: $36,344
• Rent vs Own: 52.3% rent · 47.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1627.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 7% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.28%
• Current HPI: 312.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $45,000 MLSU
• 1998-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1966-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records