14325 Tawny St · Splendora, TX 77372

$209,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,000 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

WONDERFUL NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN THE CANOPIES! Welcoming Exterior with Front Porch! Perfect Location with No Back Neighbors for Extra Privacy! Within Walking Distance to Elementary School! Fantastic Open Concept Interior Layout! Spacious Dining Area AND to Supersized Living Room Are Conveniently Located Next to the Island Kitchen for Functionality - Also Great for Entertaining! Privately Located Primary Suite Offers Great Bath with Large Shower & BIG Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Spacious Utility Room! Tankless Water Heater & Smart Home Package Included! Wonderful Community with Park - PLUS Easy Access to Highway 59! Hurry and Call Today! MOVE I

Key facts

• Large shower
• Island kitchen
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• OPEN CONCEPT INTERIOR LAYOUT
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• LARGE SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: D.R. Horton
• HOA & community: Community managed by Vision Communities Management; Annual association fee of $750; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage, 2 spaces
• Security: Prewired; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Single-story (First floor living); Facing not specified
• Construction: Built 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor, approx. 15x11); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 10x9); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 10x9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Quartz counters; Kitchen/dining combo; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $209,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $214,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $181,257 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,990
• List price: $209,990
• Delta: -2.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14371 Leafy Willow Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	6mo	$208,990	$181	90
14320 Leafy Willow Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	6mo	$213,990	$185	88
14307 Leafy Willow Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	6mo	$217,990	$189	86
14311 Leafy Willow Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	7mo	$223,990	$194	86
24114 Chirp St	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$221,990	$173	80
24142 Chirp St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	4mo	$214,990	$168	76
23708 Patchouli Terrace Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,156 (0%)	7mo	$204,990	$177	73
14335 Leafy Willow Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	3mo	$214,990	$168	73
23728 Patchouli Terrace Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	6mo	$209,990	$164	58
14609 Ivy Floral Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	2mo	$208,990	$163	56
13991 Manatee St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+10%)	3mo	$189,900	$150	55
23235 Teakwood Hills Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	6mo	$236,990	$185	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-42,212
• Equity at exit: $32,056

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-46,069
• Equity at exit: $18,588

Cash invested: $60,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,960

Max offer price $198,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-43	+0% $-117	+5% $-191	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-188	+0% $-117	+5% $-45	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-62	base $-117	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,748
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,990 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,990 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,990 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,990 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,990 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,990 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,990 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,990 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,990 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,990 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,990 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,990 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,990 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,990 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,990 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    price $214,990 702-char remark
17. 2026-04-25
    listed $219,990 Active 702-char remark
18. 2026-02-25
    price $230,390 1497-char remark
19. 2026-02-11
    price $229,990 1497-char remark
20. 2026-01-29
    listed $235,990 Active 1497-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$6,254
• Taxable loss: −$5,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home in The Canopies is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious kitchen, open floor plan, and private bedrooms. The property is located within walking distance to an elementary school and has easy access to Highway 59. Potential buyers will appreciate the home's move-in-ready condition and its location in a desirable community.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $219,990 HARMLS