263 Jones Ridge Ln Lot 50 · Broad Creek, NC 28570

$425,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2023 0.45 ac lot Est $381k · 12% over $45/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cali plan has an open floor plan, 4 bedrooms and two bathrooms on one level, and this home is located in the beautiful Ballantine community. The kitchen has granite counter tops, a pantry, and all appliances are stainless steel. Every home is a Smart Home, equipped with video Skybell, Pro Z-Wave Thermostat & Lights and more. Ballantine is in a prime location with beaches in either direction, coastal living, boat ramps nearby, and easy access to all shopping. (PHOTOS NOT OF ACTUAL HOME BUT ONE SIMILAR-OPTIONS/COLORS MAY VARY).

Key facts

• Gas grill
• Custom paver patio
• Gas fire pit

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CUSTOM PAVER PATIO
• BUILT-IN OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• GAS GRILL
• GAS FIRE PIT
• MINUTES FROM SANDY BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $540 (approximately $45/month); Association provides management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage with door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level / one story; Entry level: 1; Located on a corner lot; Private road frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Front and rear porches; Patio; Outdoor grill; Pergola; Shed(s); Full wood backyard fence; Shingle roof; Has a view; Storm doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Pantry; Outdoor kitchen (exterior)
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; High ceilings; Entrance foyer; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Window coverings; Smoke detector(s); Accessible full bathroom; Lighting and thermostat energy-efficient features
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($107k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $425k).
• Cap rate 31.4% vs local median 22.6% in Broad Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#340 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bogue Sound Elementary (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B, #168 of 1,410 statewide, top 12%, 467 students, 99% FRL); Broad Creek Middle (math 63% / reading 68%, grade A-, #28 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 710 students, 100% FRL); Croatan High (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A, #73 of 535 statewide, top 13%, 974 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $15,017/mo this rent would consume 257% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $354k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $425,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.56%
• DSCR: 4.99
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,066
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Jones Ridge Ln	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,705 (-6%)	3mo	$377,000	$221	88
210 Jones Ridge Ln Lot 89	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-2%)	13mo	$374,199	$211	82
129 Ballantine Grove Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (-2%)	11mo	$387,000	$220	72
110 Ballantine Grove Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,885 (+4%)	13mo	$390,000	$207	68
270 Jones Ridge Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-10%)	8mo	$375,000	$232	61
157 Nine Mile Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,806 (0%)	11mo	$315,000	$174	58
115 Ballantine Grove Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,016 (+12%)	12mo	$405,000	$201	58
101 Eudora Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,906 (+6%)	2mo	$425,000	$223	54
183 Gales Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,044 (+13%)	11mo	$435,000	$213	44
118 Turtle Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (-11%)	4mo	$245,000	$153	42
238 Cottontail	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,636 (-9%)	15mo	$300,500	$184	35
115 Eudora Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,030 (+12%)	8mo	$425,000	$209	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $497,059
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.77×
• Total profit: $1,162,256
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,375/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,154
• Net cashflow: $8,882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,775

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $425,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $425,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $180,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$6,375
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,417
• − Management: −$14,417
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable income: $106,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,479
• After-tax cash flow: $81,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Broad Creek

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #340
• US rank: #13718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Broad Creek, NC
• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+20.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $425,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-03-26 Sold (MLS) $353,790 Hive MLS
• 2023-12-11 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2023-11-30 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2023-09-22 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed $347,990 Hive MLS
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $352,990 Hive MLS