3009 Alston Dr · Mobile, AL 36605

$159,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,338 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1958 0.25 ac lot Est $163k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3009 Alston Dr — a beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 1-bath home that truly looks just as good in person as it does in the photos! Step inside to find newly renovated flooring throughout, offering a fresh and modern feel. The bathroom has been tastefully updated with stylish tile in the shower, adding a clean and contemporary touch. Enjoy plenty of outdoor space with a huge backyard — perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating your own private retreat. Conveniently located, this home offers easy access to the interstate for a smooth commute and is within walking distance to grocery stores and everyday essentials. Plus, it’s just a short drive to the new air

Key facts

• Huge backyard
• Updated bathroom
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• HUGE BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO INTERSTATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Robert W Gilliard Elementary (math 8% / reading 23%, grade F, #503 of 627 statewide, top 80%, 780 students, 94% FRL); Ben C Rain High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 589 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 67% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 9% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,659/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 1521% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $160k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.07%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,236
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3016 Curry Dr W	0.12mi	4/1.0	1,353 (+1%)	10mo	$112,000	$83	80
2907 Gulfdale Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	10mo	$180,750	$129	73
1658 Gulfdale Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (+3%)	14mo	$166,224	$121	66
3022 Pickell Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,249 (-7%)	12mo	$190,000	$152	63
3001 Mcgough Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (+12%)	4mo	$249,000	$166	60
2903 Alston Ct	0.22mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,259 (-6%)	13mo	$83,000	$66	60
2905 Lott Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-10%)	2mo	$146,000	$122	58
1853 Brill Cir	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,492 (+12%)	10mo	$130,000	$87	57
1808 Gulfdale Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,537 (+15%)	12mo	$215,000	$140	56
1517 Stewart Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-10%)	3mo	$215,000	$179	44
1625 Bryan Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,210 (-10%)	12mo	$55,001	$45	43
1517 S Lartigue Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (-13%)	10mo	$140,000	$120	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,357
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $71,220
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36605

• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,659 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $800/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,230

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1854 Jacob Dr Unit Jacob Dr unit Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	44d	1	0.22mi
1806 Gill Rd Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,250	$0.92	21d	1	0.37mi
1326 Doyle Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,750	$1.15	14d	1	0.50mi
3311 Alba Club Rd Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	1.06mi
1258 E Charmaine Cir Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,350	$1.26	21d	1	1.24mi
3910 W Charmaine Cir Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	44d	1	1.26mi
2115 Barron Pl Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $159,900 Active
3. 2026-02-02
   soldstatus $58,000
4. 2012-09-12
   soldstatus $57,958

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$800
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,592
• − Management: −$1,592
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $1,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$363
• After-tax cash flow: $3,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 25,104
• Household income: $43,538
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1521.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 27% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.46%
• Current HPI: 125.9526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.26%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+175.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-20 Listed $159,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $57,958 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $800 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.