25110 Pine Dr · Great Bend, NY 13619

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1982 1.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling flippers, investors or anyone looking for an opportunity to turn a property into your own! Check out this 2 bed 1 bath that is looking for it's new owner. Walking in you'll find a sitting area with a pellet stove leading the small dinning area that leads to the kitchen and bath. Upstairs you'll find 2 bedrooms. This house sits on 1.48 acres allowing for you to stretch your legs and great for entertaining, it is also located on a dead-end. This property is conveniently located less than 5 minutes to Fort Drum, and within 20 minutes of all the shopping amenities' you'll need. Don't mess your chance to turn this into your dream home or your next flip.

Key facts

• Dead-end
• Dining area
• Pellet stove

Tags

• SITTING AREA
• PELLET STOVE
• DINING AREA
• 1.48 ACRES
• DEAD-END
• 5 MINUTES TO FORT DRUM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: - Single family home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,180 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $90k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.42%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,632
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34142 Jackson Ii Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (-4%)	19mo	$239,000	$232	65
35 Wilna Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,045 (-3%)	21mo	$180,000	$172	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $72,315
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.72×
• Total profit: $194,644
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,065/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $757

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $391	+0% $366	+5% $340	+10% $315
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $318	+0% $366	+5% $414	+10% $462
Rate	-1.0pp $411	-0.5pp $389	base $366	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $90,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active Under Contract 62 DOM
17. 2026-03-31
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2026-03-29
    listed $90,000 Active
19. 2007-10-31
    soldstatus $52,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,293 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,065
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,171
• − Management: −$1,171
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$750
• After-tax cash flow: $3,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Great Bend

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1180
• US rank: #26049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Great Bend, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 20
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+70.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $90,000 CNYIS
• 2007-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $52,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,065 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.